Elephant Ears

New Home

2010-01-08T21:36:00.002-05:00

Even though this blog really isn't "active" anymore, if any of you are still checking us out I am moving to be a contributor on Virginia Virtucon.

Maybe at some point in the future I may be able to relaunch again here, but until then check us out over at VV!

"Healthcare Bill" Passes the House

2009-11-08T00:16:00.002-05:00

See the list here.
Of the Virginia delegation all the GOPers voted against with Glenn Nye and Rick Boucher joining them.
While the Yes votes from Connolly, Moran & Bobby Scott did not surprise me; the Yes vote from Tom Perriello does.
I think we can mark this down as his political demise tonight.

Polling Excitement

2009-08-05T21:16:00.002-05:00

In light of the SurveyUSA poll and PPP poll released in the past week, the GOP is falling all over themselves discussing the prospect of a monumental beatdown in the governor's election this year.

This even follows with the general hope amongst national Republicans that 2009 will be a redux of 1993, when George Allen and Christie Todd Whitman won the VA and NJ governor's mansions from the dems to pave the way for the Republican Revolution of 1994.

In both polls, the breakdown of the sample showed 52% of likely voters in this year's elections as John McCain voters. Obviously, if this trend holds up, the dems are in for a long night on November 3rd. I have a hard time believing it will be this pronounced by election day, but the upcoming national issues could have a great deal of impact on this.

In addition, I want to give credit to McDonnell's campaign folks for having a theme (all be it a corny one). The lack of one was one of the central causes of McCain's problems, as well as (to a lesser extent) Jerry Kilgore and George Allen. I doubt this has made a huge impact yet, since most issue voters don't pay attention until after Labor Day. This should prove to boost McDonnell's numbers even further once that time arrives.

While these poll numbers are obviously a cause for optimism, the GOP should stay vigilant and ensure we stick to our message. As long as the campaign sticks to its theme, we will be fine. If it tries to retool anything between now and election day; the campaign may meet the same fate as the past few GOP statewide races.

Excellent Proposal

2009-07-28T23:05:00.003-05:00

I have been pretty tough on the McDonnell campaign in the past, but I think they hit a home run last week with their new comprehensive transportation plan. It can be found here.

While I am sure not everyone agrees with every point on this proposal, I think having a plan for transportation has to be a cornerstone to any GOP platform in order to win back the suburban communities of northern Virginia and Hampton Roads (and a lesser extent Richmond metro).

The biggest advantage McDonnell has over Deeds is that he can claim being a suburbanite who understands what NOVAians face every day. Rolling out this proposal proves he recognizes transportation as a top issue that warrants attention. I think this is something that has been lacking in past statewide campaigns for the GOP.

This combined with the "Bob's for Jobs" campaign theme, I am starting to be very confident that McDonnell will pull this one out.

The next thing I am interested in seeing is if Deeds comes out with any major campaign proposals or platforms, or whether he takes the Kaine strategy of "vote for me b/c things are good".

Fundrace 2009

2009-07-20T19:07:00.002-05:00

An interesting dynamic is already developing in the 2009 governor's race. So far, McDonnell has raised $10.7 million through 6/30/09, compared to Jerry Kilgore having raised $8.6 million through 6/30/05. While this seems like a positive, the question is whether the party committees are front loading their contributions.

Kilgore's 3 largest donors were the RGA ($2.87 million), RPV ($1.64 million), and RNC ($886,000); with all but $352,000 coming in the late stages of the campaign to fund TV ads and mail. This means only 4% of his funds came from the major party committees in the early going; while the rest came from major donors, PACs and individuals.
Compare that to McDonnell who has already received $1.98 million from RGA and $1.5 million from RNC. This represents 32% of all receipts.

One of the reasons for this is the lack of major donors so far in this campaign. For example, Philip Wendel gave $193,500 to Kilgore through this period; while he has given $20,000 to McDonnell.
Alpha Natural Resources gave Kilgore $82,500 through 6/30 (they also gave Kaine $10,000); while they have given McDonnell $5,000 (and Deeds $11,000) so far.
In fact, the only major donor that has matched their previous performance is Walter Curt at $100,000 in both 2005 & 2009.

Another problem is the fundraisers. Kilgore had a fundraiser at Dwight Schar's McLean residence with President Bush that raised $3 million. Bob McDonnell will not have that luxury, but Creigh Deeds will get the opposite in the form of a joint fundraiser of President Obama and DNC Chair Kaine. In addition, Deeds will get the fundraising ability of Senators Warner and Webb as well as the 3 very powerful congressmen in the VA democratic delegation, compared to Kilgore having John Warner, George Allen, as well as 8 GOP Congressmen (most of which in high ranking positions). The only high-profile person Bob will have is Eric Cantor.

Everyone agrees contributions will be tougher to come by with the economic climate the way it is. Additionally, money will likely pour in from all over the country as the various party loyalists try to launch a "re-emergence" by winning the VA and NJ governor's races. Even so, with the current fundraising ability of the democrats; I fear McDonnell could lose the money war if he cannot raise from individuals and PACs and relies entirely on out-of-state money.

And as I have said before: When the Republicans lose the money war, they lose the election...

Broadband Stimulus Story

2009-07-08T17:25:00.001-05:00

The following is guest posted by "The Geek Squad"

While all the focus of the media and blogs these past few months has been about health care reform, another important issue is slowly moving its way through the FCC and Congress. From banks, to the automobile industry, health care, to now the internet. Our government is in the process of shelling out over $7 BILLION dollars in grants as part of the economic stimulus package to phone, cable, and internet providers. OR ARE THEY?
A little over half of the money is set to go towards ‘broadband infrastructure investment over the next two years’, specifically in un-served and underserved areas of the country to both promote broadband usage and to also sure-up public safety communications. This part sounds all well and good.
However, like every other needless service government provides, there is a catch, one that may cause some of the biggest phone, cable, and internet providers (Cox, Comcast, Verizon, AT&T, etc) to say ‘no’ to any of these grants and all of this seemingly ‘free’ government cheese.
The catch; anyone receiving any of this grant money must adhere to the strict net-neutrality guidelines laid forth by the federal government and the FCC. (Sounds pretty similar to the caveats associated with TARP Funds, remember?)
First off, “net-neutrality”, is a mis-coined term, one that is supposed to describe the ability of all data that travels over the internet to be ‘equal’. Achieving complete and total equality though is impossible. Every network needs to be, and currently is, managed. Network management practices provide consumers with safe, reliable, and high quality broadband services to access the internet. The difference here is, do you want your government managing and regulating your internet or your private internet provider?
It should be noted that it is already illegal for any provider block, interfere, or degrade any access to the internet. Consumers can already go anywhere they want on the web, use any tool and software they want, access any content they want, and use any service online they’d like. Everything is available to everyone. What’s does the government think is not equal or not being made available to the public?
I guess one answer to that question, is internet service to rural areas, but instead of buying-off companies with our tax dollars to lay rural broadband infrastructure, the federal government should simply pause, and wait for the private sector with its own money to build it. In the past 10 years, private company investment in broadband networks has tallied over $850 million. Over the past four years, broadband connectivity has skyrocketed to up over 300%, totaling more than 100 million wired, wireless, and satellite broadband connections in the United States. Did you catch that?
Internet connectivity is increasing by over 300%, on a 10-year $850 million investment from private internet companies over the past 4-years. Our government wants to now spend over $7 BILLION this year. What’s the definition of ‘overkill’? Is it any wonder our national deficit is out of control.
I guess we should expect a 2,460% increase in broadband usage over the next couple years. I doubt it though.

Yet another great example of why another stimulus will be about as successful as the last one.

House Leadership

2009-06-21T18:41:00.006-05:00

In regards to my previous post, I think we need to begin our search for our next leader of the House of Delegates. Many speculate that this cycle will be Speaker Howell's last, and that he will retire after the 2011 session.
Right now the names as potential replacements are Kirk Cox and Morgan Griffith, the two other current members of leadership. While I know of no particular reason neither of them should not serve in this position; I hope the GOP will look for and choose someone who has all the necessary characteristics.

While there is no question Vance Wilkins has his problems; it is very difficult to challenge his effectiveness. Under his watch the GOP House caucus grew greatly in size (in no small help by redistricting). The other key was the unified caucus he brought to bear that has been somewhat shaky under Speaker Howell's tenture (2004 sales tax among others). In order to be successful, we need someone who can plat a vision and hold everyone together to accomplish their goals.

We need someone else in Vance's vein, someone with a wide knowledge of the state's politics as well as someone who has a job and position that allows them to devote much more time to recruiting and rallying the troops. This has been one diffidult thing for Speaker Howell; as he has a one man law practice that requires a large amount of his time.

At this point I do not have any names to suggest; I just hope we stop the automatic assent strategy employed in the past. That is not always the best way to get the best people in the best positions.

Speaker Howell's Optimism

2009-06-18T18:17:00.003-05:00

For those of you out there not on Speaker Howell's email list, here is the latest release...

Dear Fellow Virginian,
After last week's primary elections, we have finalized the best possible slate of Republican House of Delegates candidates to join our outstanding statewide ticket - McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli - for the November election. We're now less than 5 months away from Election Day and the Dominion Leadership Trust is working hard as the political campaign committee supporting our efforts to expand our majority in the House of Delegates. Growing our majority in the House of Delegates is more important than ever as we work together to stop Virginia's tax-and-spend Democrats. This year, our majority successfully defended Virginia's small businesses from more Democrat-backed regulation and taxes, protecting the backbone of our state's economy. Imagine what we can do when we pair an expanded majority with Republican Bob McDonnell in the Governor's mansion. As Speaker of the House of Delegates, I need you as a member of our team, the Dominion Leadership Trust. We'll be sending you updates on how you can join our efforts to not only keep, but expand our majority in November. Thank you for your time.
Sincerely,
Speaker Bill Howell
Virginia House of Delegates

I have to give it to Speaker Howell, he is an optimistic guy. We have seen 3 consecutive cycles of net GOP losses in the HOD as well as numerous special elections. Apparently we aren't going to simply hold the House of Delegates, we are going to win a net increase in seats. Also, maybe he should refer to his group of folks as the tax/fee/borrow-and-spend Republicans.

While I have very little confidence in this actually happening, it is something people should be focusing on. With the current GOP tally at 53 (55 if you count the 2 GOP leaning independents), combined with a high potential of further seat losses this cycle; there is a real possibility of a democratic takeover. I doubt we will see a 4-6 seat pickup in the 2009 elections; but if Deeds wins the governor's race we could see several appointments like the Preston Bryant one from 2005 that results in a democratic takeover through special elections. Due to the GOP's past track record in special elections, I would give the dems the automatic edge.

I bring this up b/c losing all three branches of government would be devastating to both the GOP and the greater Commonwealth. While the HOD has not done everything as I would have wished over the past few years, I cannot imagine what things would be like were the state government a party rule of the dems like the federal level.

This is what makes it so important that everyone in the House of Delegates run strong races and raise as much money as possible. If not, they may find themselves in a perilous position in January 2010. In addition, we need new blood to emerge as potential leadership in the House for the future. I will discuss that more in a subsequent post.

My Thoughts on the Deeds Victory

2009-06-09T20:02:00.002-05:00

Now that Creigh Deeds has unofficially won the democratic nomination for governor (by a pretty impressive margin), I have some thoughts on the state of the race.
First off, two of my best political friends have opposite outlooks; one thinks Deeds is a shew-in, while the other thinks McDonnell now has the race in the bag (both of these friends are obviously Republicans).

As you can see from my past post, I felt Terry McAuliffe was the GOP's worst nightmare in this cycle. Since he has not secured the nomination, we can all probably agree that his fundraising ability will not be nearly as pronounced in this race in Virginia. This takes the money wave off the table and makes it more likely that McDonnell will be able to be competitive or even outspend his opponent.
This coupled with Deeds more rural appeal gives McDonnell a much better chance of performing better in NOVA and other suburban communities than he would have against McAuliffe or Moran. This should prove very important in holding the House of Delegates, since the GOP candidates like Dave Albo, Tom Rust and Tim Hugo will not have to run as far ahead as the ticket. In addition, almost all hopeful GOP targets for pickups in the House are also in those same suburban communities. Speaker Howell is probably the happiest person in Virginia tonight.

Also, I do not think the candidate choice of Jody Wagner really changes the math in the LG's race. The candidates there will likely fare much like the top of the ticket, with Bolling potentially running 1-3 points ahead of McDonnell due to more name ID than his opponent.
In the AG's race, much the same situation exists; with Cuccinelli likely leading the GOP ticket in raw votes. Again, if McDonnell wins or comes close; Cuccinelli is the next Attorney General.

Now the the gubernatorial race. In the next public poll of the race, I expect McDonnell to lead by a 8-10 point margin; much like 2005. Most likely this lead will hold until Labor Day when voters begin to take a more in-depth look at the state of the race. Unfortunately, I am afraid this may result in the GOP being too overconfident early. One of things that hurt the Kilgore and Allen campaigns was overconfidence early; which resulted in a tougher time when polls started to sag.
Also, we will again find out this year if the voters of the Commonwealth continue the trend of awarding the governor's mansion to the party opposite the White House. While I think its probably a conscience, there is a possibility of some sort of correlation.

Advantages for McDonnell in Deeds getting the nomination is on the suburban community front as well as economic issues. Bob will perform better against Deeds in NOVA, Richmond metro and Hampton Roads than he would have against McAuliffe. This should provide an environment where the GOP does not get destroyed in these areas, leaving them a chance for victory.
The other help should be in the "Bob's for Jobs" theme. McDonnell being an attorney most of his career would have a much tougher time convincing the general public that he can be a "business governor" against businessman McAuliffe. Against another attorney in Deeds, this issue will be much easier for him to score points on.
A third, more intangible issue at play is the historical factor. McDonnell defeated Deeds in 2005 despite the top of his ticket being soundly defeated. While it is mostly a mindset, the cold hard reality is that Bob McDonnell has already defeated Creigh Deeds in a statewide election. That can also serve as an advantage.

Now for the disadvantages. The obvious one is the assumed moderate stance of Creigh Deeds. In fact, I dare say that is the main reason democrats selected him as their nominee. To quote a friend "They voted with their heads, not their hearts. No one who voted for Barack Obama would choose Creigh Deeds over Terry McAuliffe or Brian Moran on issues". This may have some minor problems as dems may not be as apt to work hard for a moderate, but I don't see this being a huge issue. As a corollary, this presents a problem for GOP strategy as the traditional attacks regarding gun rights, death penalty and gay marriage will be much tougher to levy against a man who has voted the same as the GOP during his General Assembly tenure.

A second disadvantage is that the recent electoral strategy gets changed; as Bob McDonnell will not deliver blowout numbers in the Shenandoah Valley, Southwest and Southside like he would against McAuliffe or Moran. It is unclear how this will play out in the era of Red State vs Blue State politics that are very evident in the Commonwealth. This favors the dems since they still seem to have a better GOTV operation in light of the success of 2008 as well as the general momentum.

The third disadvantage is the grudge match factor. Deeds, more than any other candidate; can truly convince his supporters that everyone needs to go the polls. Someone who loses a race by ~300 votes out of several million will have a very good case to make under this arena. This coupled with the great ability of Obama's GOTV organization getting out minorities and young voters could prove to repeat history if this same phenomenon occurs again.

Currently, I still do not know who I think will win in November. Before I can make a better guess; I want to see if McDonnell sticks with his theme as well as see what Deeds will do as he switches into general election mode.

Democrats are Pro-Crime?

2008-12-21T21:06:00.002-05:00

You would think so listening to some GOPs and their "accomplishments" in the past decade or so.

Another major problem plaguing our party today is the lack of real wedge issues to run on. Historically the Republicans only win the governor's mansion when they run on a specific issue(s) that resonates with the public and is a wedge issue. You saw this with parole abolition from George Allen and car tax abolition from Jim Gilmore.
More recently, the GOP has tried to run on the strength's of their anti-crime stances. They use accomplishments and initiatives like tougher sentences for meth dealers and DUI offenders. While these are noble causes, and are no doubt favorable to the electorate; they do not create a wedge issue to run on. Does anyone really think there are democrats who favor meth dealers or DUI offenders? Of course not.

Where this has greatly been a problem is that the last 4 gubernatorial candidates have been Attorney Generals. Obviously, the major accomplishments on being AG are going to be similar issues; and therefore that is what the candidates have tried to run on. Since the AG has an intrinsic advantage winning the nomination, this has created quite a problem.

I have been told that the McDonnell campaign will not use the same angle that past campaigns have on these issues, and I am glad to hear that. If he does not, I fear Bob will face the same fate as the last 2 AG's who ran for governor.

Terry McAuliffe: GOP Slayer?

2008-12-14T13:43:00.003-05:00

In light of Brian Moran's decision to resign his House seat, I would like to cover my (limited) knowledge of Terry McAuliffe and how I see the 2009 governor's race shaping up.
I had the opportunity to attend a town hall type of meeting for McAuliffe at UVA's Darden School of Business several weeks ago. It was billed as a true town hall style meeting, and not meant to be a cheerleading rally; so I thought I would see what he is all about...

Terry McAuliffe is the real deal.

In addition to his ability to fundraise (he is expected to raise $75 million in his bid for governor), I think he has a lot of ideas that will resonate with the general public. His main strengths are being an entrepreneur and having started 27 businesses. I see him taking the same route as Mark Warner and billing himself as the "friend of business". This will spell disaster for Republicans up and down the ballot if he wins the democratic nomination.

What will compound this problem is that McDonnell is an attorney and has no business experience (to my knowledge anyway). I will get into this issue further in a future post, but I think attorney gubernatorial candidates are going to continue to struggle in Virginia over the next few cycles.

If McAuliffe is able to raise the expected level of funds, that will spill over into the downticket and House races, as money will be poured into those races in expectation of a democratic takeover. They will also benefit from a superior turnout/grassroots operation driven by the fund advantage (much like what was seen in the Presidential race this past year).

Kilgore lost by 5 points and almost resulted in the GOP losing the LG and AG's races. A 7-10 point loss will ensure those races are lost in 2009. In addition, that size margin of victory would also equate to a blowout in many GOP held House districts; who will also have a very difficult time running but so far ahead of the ticket.

There is still hope for the GOP. I think a race against Moran or Deeds is winnable (although far from being assured), so the GOP can hope for that to occur. The other way to win is roll out a very ambitious reform message with specific problem solving initiatives. A plan to fix transportation would have to be the centerpiece of that message. Otherwise, I think the GOP is in a very perilous position.

Of course, we could just rest on our laurels on the hope that Virginia always votes for a governor of the opposite party that wins the White House.

The Money War

2008-12-08T22:06:00.005-05:00

As a finance person, I probably have a bigger concern for money in politics than other people do. That being said, I think everyone can agree that money is very influential in winning elections.

This is my single biggest concern going into the 2009 elections.

In 2001 the GOP had the sitting President and VP, Governor, LG, AG, 7 members of Congress (in the majority, many with committee chairmanships) and both Senators (also in the majority, with a high ranking John Warner), a House of Delegates majority and the same in the State Senate. This allowed the GOP to have a massive fundraising advantage throughout the period, allowing further victories in the Assembly and Congress (redistricting didn't hurt either).

The only counter the democrats had was running a candidate for governor that is worth several hundred million dollars. This is what helped him to out raise Mark Earley and win the election.

I do not think a Republican has ever won the governor's mansion while being outspent; but I cannot find data on that from the 1970s. Currently, I do not know how the GOP will be able to muster the funds to outspend the democratic candidate (unless Bob McDonnell is also worth $300 million and didn't tell anyone).

Think about this: President Bush raised $3 million in one night for Jerry Kilgore at Dwight Schar's house in 2005. Just think how much worse that race would have turned out had a President Kerry done a $3 million fundraiser for Kaine instead? That's not even counting the massive fundraisers done by Presidential Candidate George Allen, Armed Services Chairman John Warner, and others for the downballot candidates and the House candidates.

I fully expect a full-court press from Kaine & Co. in 2009 much like Gilmore's New Majority PAC that cranked fundraising in the 1999 midterm elections and retook the House. They will use the Obama numbers to convince the business community that they have the trends to take seats and majority. I would also expect the DNC/DGA to have an advantage due to having Obama as well.

To add insult to injury, the economic situation and the stock market will undoubtedly make it tougher to raise funds; which makes star powered fundraisers even more valuable.

There is one thing we can do to stem some of this: Make everyone raise harder. In the past, many of our candidates in safe seats have failed to raise many funds; as they do not need them. Others hoard cash for future races and/or other ambitions. If we are to have any chance at all in 2009; everyone must do their part to raise as much as possible and be willing to part with it to help others.

If the safe seat GOPs want to be in the majority in January 2010; they had better squeeze out every dollar they can find to raise in 2009.

Back in Business

2008-12-08T19:28:00.003-05:00

On almost the one year anniversary of my "sabbatical" from blogging, I have returned!
I hope everyone will enjoy the blog again, even though I realize blogs have probably fallen from the prominence they once were here in the Commonwealth.
I must tell you folks, I am "restarting" the blog to (hopefully) advance a return to prominence of the Republican Party. While there are many issues at work in the national party, I believe the best way for us to recover is to do so here in Virginia, and then use that strategy nationwide.

I must also tell you the blog will not be quite like it was in the past. First off, I do not expect to post every day; but my goal is to have a post every week. I will also be less quick to respond to questions/comments on the blog. I want this to be a discourse, not just me agreeing/disagreeing with the commenter. I will try to give others an opportunity to chime in before I respond.
The third (and most important) difference is that this will no longer be a mouthpiece/cheerleader for campaigns or the party. I have always tried to be optimistic with my blog, both with coverage of candidates and with my outlook. I usually took the "best case scenario" or "hopefully we will win" mindset. I will now be very open with my opinions and not sugarcoat them. As a corollary to this, I will also not post information on campaign events other than if it pertains to something I want to talk about (i.e. please do not email me and ask that I put up a post promoting an event, b/c I probably will not do so). I believe that one of the primary reasons blogs have lost their "swagger" is that too many people viewed them as extensions of campaigns, which therefore meant the unbiased viewpoint was lost.

My next post will showcase the change in direction I see for this blog. I hope to complete it by Wednesday morning. I invite everyone back to see where we go from here.

DNC Wants Huckabee?

2007-12-11T17:46:00.001-05:00

I didn't have to read this article to think he was a horrible candidate for the GOP, this just reinforces it.
I would feel much better about 2008 if we had someone in our field that everyone had at least a favorable opinion of.
Of course that being said, the dems may still make one of the most colossal mistakes of modern poltics by nominating the former first lady.

How would 2 of the worst candidates in modern history play out?

40th Senate Update

2007-12-05T16:47:00.000-05:00

I have some new information in the 40th Senate district. It appears Wampler will definitely take the job at the SCC, and it widely expected to pass both constitutional and confirmation hurdles. If this does occur, there will obviously be a special election; most likely in April/May.

On the dem side, it appears De. Joe Johnson is going to run and will probably be unopposed for that nomination. Even though his health isn't very good, I guess he wants to be in the majority before he leaves the Assembly.

On the Republican side there is an interesting race that could arise. My expected frontrunner Kevin Triplett has apparently declined to run. Del. Terry Kilgore has also declined, as has Jerry.
A lobbyist for Alpha Natural Resources, Donnie Ratliff, has reportedly sent out an email discussing running and he claims to have spoken with various members of the party about doing so. This should prove helpful to him in that he should be able to garner some endorsements from his position and/or connections.
A quick search on VPAP shows that he has individually given to Kilgore's Governor run, but also given to dem Delegates Dan Bowling and Bud Phillips. The company he works for (and that he essentially hands out checks for) has given over $125,000 in the 2007 elections. 22k of this was to democrats, including Del. Johnson. I have a feeling this will be a strong argument against him in the nomination contest.
The other name I have heard is Israel O'Quinn. He was a political consultant/worker in the SWVA area, most recently as Kilgore's field director. He is now a government relations person for Food City. He too is well connected, and has probably never given to any dem candidates (especially the one he is running against). My guess is, he will have the inside track on the nomination at this point (if he decides to run) b/c he can probably get the endorsement of Jerry Kilgore, and can also attack Ratliff for his dem support.

It will be interesting to see if someone from the business community and/or other non-political field steps forward to carry the GOP banner here. If they do, this nomination could become very interesting.

Campaigns Are The Key?

2007-12-04T21:44:00.000-05:00

Our friend Bwana has an interesting take on Sen. Ken Cuccinelli's victory. He argues that we should not discount the value of a perfectly run campaign; and makes the case that ultimately is why Cooch won.

I think we have discounted this same concept in many other races over the past few years. We blame issues, comments and the media; but we rarely blame the campaign itself. I think there is evidence to show that we need to at shoulder at least some of the blame on the campaigns.

Anyone with knowledge of the race will tell you that the campaign was at fault for losing the Paula Miller-Mike Ball special election in 2004.

Kilgore largely lost b/c of the barrage of negative ads, specifically the death penalty ads.

Allen's loss can be at least partially attributable to the campaign's declaration of war on the Washington Post early on in the election; which ultimately bit them in the rear.

Even in 2007, many of our very close races should not have been; but were due to poor campaigns.

I don't mean to bring this up to point fingers, but to show what we really need to focus on. Good candidates can still lose if we don't run good campaigns. The key to this is getting good talent to run our races, and making sure those people are from the area the races are in (if at all possible). One of the biggest liabilities we have seen over the past few years is having campaign managers who don't know the turf they are working in.

Certainly running a great campaign is no substitute for a great candidate, but it sure helps if you have both. If the GOP is going to win in the future, we have run solid campaigns.

Dream Ticket for '09?

2007-12-03T21:08:00.000-05:00

In the past, many have argued that statewide candidates have regional strength, and that building a strong regional ticket can be the key to victory. While I do not fully subscribe to this theory, it certainly has its advantages.

I bring this up b/c of a few of our potential candidates for 2009. A ticket of Bob McDonnell-Bill Bolling-Ken Cuccinelli would be a slam dunk for the regional perspective. We would have all 3 major metro areas of the state, and have candidates from the more conservative parts of those three. This would (if you believe in this theory) drive turnout in the conservative areas that have high population. This coupled with the naturally conservative areas like the Valley and SWVA, would seemingly deliver a big victory to the GOP on election night 2009.
With the prospect of Jay O'Brien running for LG, that even further compounds the strength of this potential ticket. Cooch is from the Centreville area in western Fairfax County while O'Brien represented parts of western Fairfax and Prince William County and is from Clifton. These 2 Senate districts are the strongest (relatively) GOP areas of Fairfax County and could potentially prevent the Republicans from getting romped in the county. As an added bonus, McDonnell grew up in the Mount Vernon area, so he could also have some pull too.

The other reason this would be so strong a ticket is the House races downticket. It is likely that the most competitive races in the HOD in 2009 will be the Va Beach seats (new dems and the GOP retirements), the Fairfax seats (Rust, Caputo, Hugo, Albo) and PWC (Marshall, Frederick, Nichols). This ticket would give us a a good regional advantage in all those seats.

Obviously there are alot of holes in this theory, but I would like to see what everyone thinks about this prospect.

2009 GOP Ticket

2007-12-02T21:12:00.000-05:00

Since it appears our 2008 Senate candidate is pretty well set, I thought I would take a look at where the GOP is looking for its 2009 stable. In light of this weekend's Advance, we may be able to guess who may be making some moves.

Governor is probably the most widely known right now. From all indications, Bob McDonnell will run as will George Allen. If Allen chooses not to run, Bill Bolling will likely jump in the race.
The only other potential candidate I see here is Congressman Eric Cantor. He had a suite at the Advance, and his consultant would likely want to have a candidate for governor.

Lt. Governor is also potentially easy. Many expect Bolling to stay put, since he has indicated he will not run against George Allen. I don't see anyone challenging him if he stays.
If he chooses not to run (for whatever reason), there are a couple of candidates. Del. Chris Saxman would seemingly throw his name in the hat, after refusing a Senate run this year. Former Sen. Jay O'Brien also had a suite and is rumored to be running for LG. Gil Davis is also likely to run again, but I don't know if he will gain much traction.

Attorney General is the most wide open right now. Sen. Cuccinelli is likely to be running. Arlington County School Board Chairman Dave Foster is also looking to run for AG as well (even though I can't imagine how he could be a GOP and win in Arlington).
Steve Baril and Paul Harris were once seen as candidates, but both have been largely absent from any party events and apparently are not running. Sen. Mark Obenshain was also rumored to be running, but it appears he will not either.

There may be others that arise for the 3 offices, but this is all I am seeing right now.

It is amazing to me how low key this cycle has been, since 4 years ago we knew of most all the candidates that ultimately ran for statewide office.

Who does everyone else see running?

Orange Bowl Bound

2007-12-02T21:09:00.000-05:00

The Hokies are the ACC Champions and are headed to the Orange Bowl to take on Kansas.
VT is ranked #3 in the BCS, largely due to our #1 ranking in the computers.
If we were to win the bowl game, it would be our first 12 win season ever.

Gone to the Advance

2007-11-30T09:26:00.000-05:00

I look forward to seeing everyone this weekend and hopefully it will be a great event.

Also, the Hokies are taking on BC in the ACC Championship Game; so hopefully we can get a big win tomorrow and head to the Orange Bowl with another ACC Title in hand.

Another Special Election?

2007-11-28T14:49:00.000-05:00

NLS is reporting that Sen. William Wampler will be taking a job at the State Corporation Commission. This would require him to resign his Senate seat. This is largely seen as a move by the dems to shore up their Senate majority, in the event that one of their members (specifically Chuck Colgan) was unable to complete their term. I expect that some on my side of the aisle will say this is Wampler's repayment for helping the dems while they were in the minority, as he was a powerful member of the Senate Leadership Trust.

NLS claims that Del. Joe Johnson will be the dem nominee, while speculating that Del. Terry Kilgore could be the GOP standard bearer. I personally do not see either of these happening.
Johnson has long been rumored to be at the end of his GA service with bad health and old age. From Terry's prespective, why would you give up MAJORITY Caucus Chairman in the House to be in the minority with no senority in the Senate. If Kilgore does run for the Senate, it signals to me that he expects there will be a regime change in the House in a couple years (Kilgore is a big ally of Speaker Howell, which is why he is Caucus Chair in the first place).

While I have no idea who the dems would run, my early guess for the GOP is Kevin Triplett. He has been interested in running for something again since his Congressional race; and he could raise money and has name ID. I have not heard much on this race yet, but he would be my bet right now for the Republicans.

As for the likely outcome, its a special election and anything can happen. Obviously the district has a strong GOP lean, but turnout is everything in a special election. I would give the early edge to the GOP here, b/c we have better local parties and more local electeds in this Senate district than in Phil Puckett's, so that should help the Republican candidate here. If however Johnson does get in the race, it could get very interesting.

On another note, this move carries another big political impact. Sen. Wampler has always been viewed as the GOP's most likely candidate to run for the 9th when Boucher retires. With Wampler's retirement, this picture will now become much more unclear. Any Republican in this Senate district would have the inside track on a race like that, b/c it has all the GOP strongholds in Southwest Virginia needed to win the 9th. Anyone thinking about running for the 9th in the future will have to take a very serious look at running for this seat to give themselves a shot at the Congressional seat down the road.

Go Hokies!

2007-11-26T10:00:00.000-05:00

If anyone missed it, the Hokies are playing in the ACC Championship game this Saturday at 1 PM in a rematch against Boston College. It should be a good time watching the game at the Advance.
This is kind of an open thread on VT Football and/or the RPV Advance this weekend.

The Road to Majority

2007-11-20T14:23:00.000-05:00

Now that we have lost the Senate majority, we need to find a way to get it back. This is obviously a long process that will not happen for at least 4 years (unless an unforseen opening occurs). Even so, the GOP needs to start doing things to position themselves to retake the Senate in 2011; and also hold the House in 2009.

As I said in my last post, the key to achieving our goal is putting forward a positive limited government platform that will resonate with people. We cannot be the party of simply lower taxes and social issues; we have to be the party that efficiently uses our tax dollars and that defends why we need strong moral values.

The best example of this is in the budgetary process. One of the biggest problems our state's (and every government) budget is faced with is social backlash. If the government gives anyone or anything less money than last time around; its a cut in funding. In fact, if something is given less money than they asked for but is still more than last year it is viewed as a cut. The problem is, no one cheers when we cut funding for something; they only complain. Certainly there are people who favor cutting stuff, but they are usually silent when it happens.
We have to be the party that explains why something is being cut (either literally or by media standards). This can only be accomplished one way: prioritized spending.

In our own families, we prioritize what we need to spend money on and we spend it in that order. If we are lucky enough to have some left over, we save it. If not, we have to cut out something. For example, most people would say their house payment is pretty important, so they make sure they have enough money for that. If that means they have to cut back on going to Outback Steakhouse, thats what they do. Every voter does this, and its a pretty simple concept to understand.
Unfortunately, government rarely works this way. We say, "well education needs more money and so does the transportation. I guess we have to borrow money or raise taxes, b/c we can't cut anything." No family runs their personal life this way, so why should government?

What I propose is that our party's leadership has to put forth a platform of priorites. If transportation truly is our biggest "crisis", then we should first budget our money for that. If education is second, then we should fully fund that. If this style ends up resulting in money running out when we get to the Art Foundation's funding, then they don't get any.
This is what feeds into tax policy. If we approached government like this, it would severely limit tax increases b/c you would have to show the people what you were raising taxes for. If we fund everything but the Art Foundation and they still want money, our Delegates and Senators have to essentially vote to raise taxes to fund that program. It makes it much tougher to approve something like that, when it is viewed that way. On the other hand, if we get halfway through education and run out of money, then if people want more money for schools and are willing to pay for it, then they can. In another scenario, if we fully fund everything and we still have money left over; we can return it by cutting taxes. This way, we are being efficient with our tax money and ensuring that the most important things get done.

This also has the effect of making people look for ways to reduce spending. Right now, there is very little incentive to find waste; b/c everything is rolled up together. Under this system, cutting waste may be what allows your project to get funded when it otherwise would not have.

Until our party looks at the budget like a family, it will get tougher and tougher to get the people to trust us to handle their money.

The Road to Minority

2007-11-18T16:39:00.000-05:00

Since election day, everyone seems to think they have the answers to why the GOP lost the State Senate and continues to bleed seats in the House of Delegates. Our friends at VCAP and their supporters argue its b/c the GOP isn't conservative enough. Their evidence for this arguement is that "RINO" Devolites-Davis lost while conservative Cuccinelli won. They also cite Karen Schultz running "a smart campaign by adopting traditionally conservative positions on gun rights, the right to life, and taxes" in her loss to Jill Holtzman-Vogel as proof that being conservative wins.

Our friends on the other side of the aisle claim the opposite. They claim the GOP has gotten too conservative and their evidence is the loss of Tricia Stall and the weak showings for Jill Vogel and Ralph Smith in their GOP heavy districts.

This isn't that surprising. After all, every group is naturally going to think they aren't the reason for losing. The key I think to this arguement is not whether conservativism wins; but what "conservatism" really is.

It is a proven fact that areas like NOVA are in fact pro-choice, pro-gun control and pro-higher taxes (depending on the reason). So how did Ken Cuccinelli win? The Dems must be wrong. But wait, Tricia Stall lost a race in a straight GOP district; and Ralph Smith squeaked by in a solid GOP leaning district that favors guns, lower taxes and babies. The VCAPers must be wrong too huh?

I propose that conservativism does win, but it has to be implemented correctly.
In order to win, conservatism has to be a true limited government platform. We can be socially conservative, but we have to be more than that. We have to oppose spending increases and look for ways to streamline government. We have to assess government like a business and run it as such. Opposing taxes isn't the key, its ensuring that the taxes we are already paying are being properly used. Then if we don't need all of it, we can cut taxes and return that money to the people.

The GOP is currently suffering from a contradictory stance on our economic policy. We favor "limited government", but have grown the budget more than the dems. The problem is that the GOP isn't the party of limited government, its the party of lower taxes. That is a problem b/c without less spending, you can't lower taxes but so much. The public knows that roads need to be built and schools need to be funded, and contantly cutting taxes without cutting spending cannot continue indefinitely.
In a related issue, some aren't even opposed to taxes. Stall and Smith ousted their opponents largely on their support of the '04 tax increase, but neither of those (or any of the other primary challengers) campaigned on trying to roll back that tax increase. How can you expect the general electorate to believe you, when you don't even oppose the one thing you are accusing your primary opponent of doing?

Now that I have bashed the VCAP crowd and the general GOP, the Dems aren't right either. They are simply resting on the failures of the GOP in their victories. They aren't winning so much as we are losing.
They will not really be "moderate" when they get in power either. The best example of this is the concept of non-partisan redistricting. Sen. Deeds has constantly tried to get that to pass, but now incoming Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw has said that issue will not be a big concern for his party anymore. Shocking; the dems wanted non-partisan redistricting as long as they had no say in the current system; but now want the system to stay the same since they can control it. This is exactly how I think they will operate in many other issues once they are in charge. Its not a shot at their people, its largely just a natural progression.
When you are trying to win, you are all on the same team fighting the enemy. Once you achieve power, you have to fight amongst yourselves to figure out which way to run things.

Obviously, many of you will disagree with my theory here; but I am interested in seeing how everyone else sees the results of the elections a few weeks ago.

State of the Race in the 22nd

2007-09-13T20:57:00.000-05:00

Since it appears a good portion of you folks are interested in the 22nd Senate race, so we will start off Post-Labor Day election coverage with this.

I don't really know of anything pressing in this race right now. Everything appears to be going well for Smith and he still seems to be the frontrunner.

As I have pointed out before, the only major concern I saw going into this race was that a dem could sneak up on the GOP nominee, because there are no other major constitutional races or delegate races that are very competitive down ticket from this race. If turnout is super low, the dems have a chance here.

Also, it appears there has been a smooth transition from the Bell supporters; so that is one area that a potential problem has been averted.

Otherwise, I think Ralph should be fine.

What are you all hearing?

Opinions on Subprime "Crisis"

2007-09-04T20:18:00.000-05:00

I just wanted to see what everyone's thoughts are on the subprime mortgage crisis and what everyone thinks needs to be done.

Happy Labor Day

2007-09-02T23:00:00.000-05:00

Yes, I am still alive; and hopefully I will start blogging again. Since we have the 2008 Senate race officially starting as well as some other things going on, hopefully I will have something to write about now.

Intra Party Effects of New Chairman

2007-07-23T21:31:00.000-05:00

In light of the new RPV Chairman, I figured we should take a look at some of the effects this will set up for the future.

First off, this is a big victory for Tom Davis. His people were instrumental in getting Hager to run for chair and eventually win the race. This should pay dividends as it should give him the inside track to getting a primary as the method of nomination for the 2008 Senate race. It should also give a good set up for whoever Davis wants to get the 2009 governor nomination since we will likely determine the method of nomination for that within the next 6 months.

As you can imagine, there are also ideological overtones to this chairman's race. Most considered this race to be conservative (Judd) vs. moderate (Hager). This was a result of Hager working for Mark Warner as well as the Tom Davis machine working to get him elected.

As a result of this, the election of Hager is also seen a victory for the party moderates as well as a defeat for the conservatives. This makes for an interesting setup come November.

The tag line for the conservatives over the past few years has been that the GOP wins when it sticks to its principles and it loses when it runs moderates. That sentiment was certainly invoked in the elections of 2005, and even some argue that for 2006.
With lots of competitive races and even the Senate majority in peril on the horizon, the conservatives will likely point to Hager "the moderate" for the defeats if they occur in November.

To compound this problem, Gillespie has been a gangbuster fundraiser up to this point. Alot of that can be attributed to the fundraiser with President Bush at the home of Richard Sharp, and various others with 2008 presidential hopefuls. Even so, Hager will have a tough time performing at that level until the election. This is one more potential problem conservatives will likely be able to point to if we crash and burn on election day.

The other side of the coin here is that Hager will likely get very little credit if the GOP is successful in November, since most of the threatened Senators are conservatives (Cuccinelli, O'Brien, and Rerras). The conservatives will argue they won b/c of their own principles and not the leadership of Hager.

I see all this leading up to an inevitable backlash against the moderates in the RPV Chair election at the Advance in early December. The conservatives will run a candidate who will likely take on Hager for the job, which will cause a battle much like this last one.
Right now, we seem to be united with our new chairman. I don't see the same level of unity the next time around. We will likely have a divisive nomination for Senate in 2008 shortly after this chairman's election, so it may be awhile before the RPV can regroup.

We are in the middle of a major realignment within the party. Its just much more clear when viewed through the lens of the RPV Chairman and the race for the job. Whats unclear is which side will be successful. The other thing that unclear is who is a "conservative" and whos a "moderate".

UPDATE: Let me point out that I am not personally saying supporters of Hager are moderates. I am simply saying that's the way some in the party will likely see it. We must remember that perception is key in politics. Like I said at the end of the post, its unclear who is conservative and who is moderate; b/c it all depends on who you ask.

The State Central Rundown

2007-07-22T20:26:00.000-05:00

As most of you know by now, former LG John Hager was elected the new RPV Chair Saturday at the State Central Meeting. You probably even know that there were 2 ballots: the first being Charlie Judd 40, Hager 39 and Chuck Smith 2; the second was 41 Hager, 39 Judd, 1 Smith.

Also, we had to replace our Treasurer. The job seemed to be Ray Ergenbright's until about 36 hours before the race former treasurer Rick Neel threw his hat into the ring. Some reports say Neel won by a considerable margin; and my guess is that Ergenbright hadn't solidified support since he was unopposed which enabled Neel to gather alot of people.

We also had 2 district chairman effectively step down from their positions. 4th CD Chair Wayne Ozmore will resign effective July 31st to persue "other opportunities" (I think he has a new job). 5th CD Chair Tucker Watkins will also step down as a new chair is elected next week at their at convention. No apparent reason was given for that.

Lastly, I saw a few McDonnell 2009 bumper stickers on various cars at the meeting. It looks like McDonnell is already starting to build a team for 2009, which is interesting since I have heard he is running for governor regardless of whether George Allen runs or not.

Tomorrow I will have a post on the intra-party effects on the elections Saturday.

Bolling for Senate?

2007-07-09T17:48:00.000-05:00

I am sure all of you have read the LG's statement on immigration today, but in case you haven't; it can be found here.

Anyway, the most interesting part of the whole article was the last paragraph:
"I understand that illegal immigration is complex, but it is not as complex as the politicians in Washington want to make it appear. We support legal immigration. We oppose illegal immigration. And if they cannot understand that, we need some new leaders in Washington."

As most of you know, George Allen will likely run for governor in 2009. Due to Bolling's close friendship with him, it is likely that Bill would choose not to challenge Allen in a race like that. Whats more, he probably doesn't want to set in the LG's seat for another 4 years either.

I have started to wonder if he would try and get the GOP nod for the Senate race in 2008 if John Warner retires; to counter Tom Davis and run as the conservative in the race. Based on this most recent editorial, I'd say its a decent chance of that happening.

I am not saying he will definitely do it, but it appears he may be laying the groundwork in case he decides to move forward.

Nothing to Talk About

2007-06-19T06:43:00.001-05:00

Sorry to everyone for not posting, but I haven't really seen anything to talk about lately. None of the races have really heated up, especially since everyone is still digesting the primary results.

About the only thing going on is the race for RPV Chair. On that front, it looks like the conservatives want Charlie Judd to be both RPV Chair and Exec Director. The moderates are apparently leaning more toward former LG John Hager. I also know Va Beach Chair Chuck Smith is running, but I don't know how much support he has.

Hopefully things will get more exciting as we move through the summer.

Primary Fallout

2007-06-13T21:38:00.001-05:00

Due to some upsets and the results of the GOP primaries, we should take a look at where some of the races stand now that we know who the candidates are.

Stosch is unopposed, so he will win in a strongly Republican district.

Quayle has opposition, but he will be much stronger than Ramsey would have been. He should win this seat without too much problem.

Hanger will likely win, since its a strongly GOP district; and the libertarian I assume is pro-choice (which is pretty much the kiss of death in western Va).

Holtzman-Vogel should do well in the 27th, since the district is pretty strong GOP; but there could be a potential race if Tate's charges turn out to be false and she gets blamed for it. The dem seems to be weak here though, so she still might be ok (plus she will have massive fundraising ability).

Ralph Smith will have a race, even in a good Republican district; but ultimately he will probably win. More on this race later.

Trisha Stall is the big question mark. The 1st district is only marginally Republican, but there isn't the liability of being downticket this year. The dems appear to have a credible candidate, so there will be alot of money spent here. Stall will likely have a much tougher race than Williams would have had, but she can still win. This race has the potential to become one of the more competitive races this year.

I will do more in-depth analysis on each race as we get closer to the general election.

Wow

2007-06-12T22:09:00.000-05:00

I did not expect the night to go like this.
Walter Stosch and Emmett Hanger won their races, but by much closer margins than I expected.
Trisha Stall defeated Marty Williams, which wasn't 100% unexpected, but still wasn't predicted by very many.

The biggest upset of the night goes to Ralph Smith. I don't know of anyone who predicted that he would win, especially since turnout was reasonable. His staff and campaign should be commended on their unbelievable job.

Now we must all circle the wagons and take on the dems in November. The Senate is gonna be very tough to defend.

Primary Day

2007-06-12T06:45:00.000-05:00

Let us know whats goin on in the primary races.

What is everyone hearing?

UPDATE: The 27th race is experiencing staggeringly low turnout. Tate may still have a chance here (although Jill is probably still in a good position).
The race in the 24th has pretty high turnout, which should favor Hanger. It appears alot of people are calling it for him.
The race in the 22nd looks like it will end at around 7% districtwide, with the heavier turnout in the Roanoke Valley. Here again, the higher turnout should help Bell.
The word in the 12th is that the Massie votes should give Blackburn an edge. We will see how it shakes out.

Blogs and the Primaries

2007-06-11T16:27:00.000-05:00

One of the most interesting aspects to the GOP primaries this year has been the involvement of the blogs. From what I have seen, most all blog endorsements have been made in favor of the three challengers: Blackburn, Smith and Sayre.

The race in the 24th probably has the most blog interaction; with an entire contingent "carrying the water" for Sayre on their own blogs as well as crossposting and contributing to Bloggers for Sayre. We have even seen some latercomers come in defense of Hanger, but most label them at least somewhat hostile toward some GOPs.

The big question right now in Republican circles is whether blogs are truly relevant on our side of the political spectrum. The dems can make the arguement that they are effective in their party, since many attribute Jim Webb's nomination and subsequent election to his blogger friends. They also can take credit if Donald McEachin defeats Senator Benny Lambert and/or if Henry Light defeats Del. Johnny Jonnoau. They were also instumental in keeping the death penalty ads and "macaca" in the limelight during the 2005 and 2006 statewide campaigns.

Conversely, the GOP blogs almost all supported Sean Connaughton in 2005 and he was unable to secure the party's nomination. A good number of blogs also supported the ousting of several GOP delegates in 2005, with only one succeeding (and Craddock was defeated in the general election). Furthermore, the GOP blogs have been unable (or ineffective at) turning the tide of the death penalty ads in 2005's gubentorial election and the "macaca" incident in the Senate race of 2006; which both resulted in Republican defeats.

If none of the challengers are able to achieve electoral success this around, what does that say about the GOP blogs' effectiveness? If however, one or all the challengers win, I think alot of their success will be credited to the blogs (especially Sayre).

On a different front, what will come of the SWAC bloggers? While Spank the Donkey has been around for awhile, most of the others almost seem as if they were created to devote themselves toward Scott Sayre's election. If he is defeated tomorrow, will they stay in the blogsophere? If so, will they be as active as they are now?

I think tomorrow's election results will show whether the blogs are a truly effective force in changing public opinion, or at the very least swaying the GOP faithful in elections. This could almost be considered a "watershed election" for the Republican blogosphere.

GOP Primary Overview

2007-06-10T21:37:00.000-05:00

As we enter the final hours of the primary campaigns in the GOP incumbent challenges, I want to give an overview of what I think will happen in the races and how they are connected.

To begin, I want to point out that I think the 3 major primary races (12th, 22nd and 24th) all have one thing in common: "grassroots" vs. "establishment". In all three races, the challengers have argued that they don't need as much money b/c they have grassroots support and don't need it. The incumbents argue that their position and seniority will help their districts and that's the main reason they should be re-elected.

As a result of this phenomenon, the races' outcomes will largely be determined by turnout. The supporters of challengers Blackburn, Smith and Sayre are very active and motivated and will all be at the polls on Tuesday no matter what. This is the single biggest advantage the challengers have right now. The number of votes each of these candidates will receive is probably a relatively fixed number. For example, if Sayre has 4000 people who are going to vote for him, he will likely get 4000 votes whether there are 4200 votes cast or 42,000.

This is both a blessing and a curse, since obviously they are at the mercy of the electorate. If most people choose to not show up on primary day, one or all of these challengers may be able to pull off an upset. If however people do show up, they have no chance to win the GOP nominations. Conversely, if weather is bad (which it looks like a potential for scattered showers in the districts on Tuesday) or if people think the nominations are sewn up; turnout will be extremely low and put the challengers in position to capture their respective district nominations.

I think most right now would give the edge to the incumbents in all these races, simply because incumbents usually do not get ousted in primaries. Whats more, they have all significantly outspent their opponents in their respective races.

That being said, margin of victory is the bigger question. While most believe these contests will be relatively close; I disagree. While anything can happen; I think that we will likely see these 3 incumbents all receive at least 60% of the vote in their primaries. If there is bad weather in these districts, that number may fall some; but I think most people have misinterpreted the electorate in these races. Many more people than just committee members and GOP activists will vote (contrary to popular belief) which will give a large base of voters for the incumbents.

I reiterate the fact that if turnout is extremely low (under 2%) that the challengers may get in striking distance; but I honestly believe the incumbents will all be victorious when the votes are counted Tuesday night. I also want to point out that this is not an endorsement of Stosch, Bell and Hanger; but simply a prediction based on what I know and think will happen. Throughout these primaries I have tried to stay as neutral in my coverage as possible while still giving a good analysis of what I think will happen.

Tomorrow I will have a final post before the primaries on the blogosphere's influence on this political process.

Finance Reports in the 12th

2007-06-07T21:35:00.000-05:00

The race in the 12th is unbelievable. The amount of money being spent in this race is just staggering. The reports look like this...

Raised:
Walter Stosch: $1,007,122 ($254,873 this period)
Joe Blackburn: $241, 595 ($91,376 this period)

Cash on Hand:
Walter Stosch: $307,570
Joe Blackburn: $85,589

Stosch has more cash on hand than Blackburn has raised. I wouldn't think Stosch will finish spending all the money, he has already spent almost a million bux, so its hard to say.

As to my prediction, I can't imagine the scale of the upset this would cause if Blackburn were to win. When was the last time an incumbent was defeated when outspending their opponent 4-1; especially when that 4-1 is a million dollars?

22nd Primary Finances

2007-06-06T16:52:00.000-05:00

Unlike the race in the 24th; the 22nd is seen by most as a longshot of an upset. Brandon Bell is favored, and the financial reports explain that.

Raised:
Brandon Bell: $253,199 ($54,706 this period)
Ralph Smith: $59,518 ($10,097 this period)

Cash on Hand:
Brandon Bell: $38,033
Ralph Smith: $14,397

Bell commands a 4-1 spending advantage, because Smith has never gotten much traction here. Also, almost half of Smith's funds are from his personal donations and mayoral campaign account.

I think this would be the biggest upset in Virginia State Senate history if Smith were to knock off an incumbent in a primary being outspent 4-1. I don't think that upset is gonna happen.

Stosch-Blackburn financials will looked at later tonight or tomorrow.

UPDATE: Bell has received an additional $25,800 in donations since the filing. Looks like a potential for a big ad blitz or something like that in the next few days in the Roanoke area.

Fundrace in the 24th

2007-06-05T16:31:00.000-05:00

The finance reports are out, and there is more bad news for Senate challenger Scott Sayre. After having Del. Landes and Congressman Goodlatte endorse his opponent incumbent Senator Emmett Hanger; now he is in deeper trouble.
The financials look like this:

Raised:
Emmett Hanger: $232,321.38 ($87,864 this period)
Scott Sayre: $152,707.71 ($85,504.76 this period)

Cash on Hand:
Emmett Hanger: $111,364.22
Scott Sayre: $30,999.84

As you can see, Hanger is crushing Sayre by almost a 4-1 margin going into the home stretch. In fact, over half of Sayre's fundraising this period came from a $50,000 donation from millionaire GOPer Walter Curt (I only bring this up since the Sayre folks made a big deal out of the 25k Hanger received from Jimmy Hazel's Leadership for Va PAC last period).

Sayre better hope the grassroots can really deliver, if he has any hope of winning this one.

I will do analysis of the other races later tonight or tomorrow.

UPDATE: Hange has received an additional $30,000 from Leadership for Va PAC. I guess Jimmy Hazel doesn't want Walter Curt to beat him out on contributions here.

24th Update

2007-06-04T06:37:00.000-05:00

As you all have probably seen, Del. Steve Landes and Congressman Bob Goodlatte have now publicly thrown their support behind Sen. Hanger in the 24th district GOP primary. While many would argue neither of these are huge surprises (Landes was Hanger's LA back in the day, while Emmett's daughter is Goodlatte's Chief of Staff), they still carry a good bit of weight; and add to the list of elected officials supporting Hanger. I have even seen some arguements that Hanger's polling must be strong in order for these guys to come out behind Emmett (of course, the exact opposite could be just as easily be argued as well).

Whats more, is now a new pro-Hanger blog has been launch called Teddy's Truth. "Teddy Roosevelt" has made some interesting accusations and pointed out some interesting developments that could indicate a trend in this race. He says that one of the 24th's GOP chairs who endorsed Sayre, runs a blog but all the anti-Hanger posts have now been taken down.

I will have more on this race, specifically how the blogosphere plays a role, when we get a little closer to June 12.

Gillespie Leaving RPV?

2007-06-03T12:01:00.000-05:00

According to a Politico article, RPV Chair Ed Gillespie may be taking the White House counselor's job in the near future.

It is my understanding that he would probably have to give up RPV Chairman if he took that.

Hopefully we will have more on this soon.

Henrico GOP Primary Effects

2007-06-01T07:51:00.000-05:00

An interesting dynamic is developing in the Richmond suburbs right now. As you all know, there is a Senate primary in the 12th which makes up part of Henrico and Goochland counties. There is also a GOP primary for the 72nd district being vacated by Del. Jack Reid.

Intially it appeared James Massie III would sweep into the seat with no opposition. Instead, two more candidates have entered the fray. An article on the race from the RTD is here.

The 2 other candidates are James Wheat III, the Wheat First securities dealers family member; and Bill Subramaniam, an Indian immigrant and successful neurologist.

Wheat is being accused of essentially being a democrat trying to get a GOP nomination, since he endorsed Tim Kaine in 2005. That would be a possibility since the seat is pretty heavily GOP.

Subramanian is not getting much attention right now, but would probably be considered a non-establishment candidate, who just wants to see change in the party. He also has an interesting radio ad out about him being an immigrant who achieved the American Dream, just like the settlers at Jamestown.

At any rate, Massie is part of the Marcus & Allen machine. That being the case, he most likely was already going to been the benefactor of getting all the Joe Blackburn votes coming to him in this primary.

From what I see, most all the votes that Wheat and Subramanian bring to the polls will likely be voting for Stosch. While I still think Massie has the nomination in the bag, these other candidates could prove to be spoiler for Backburn if Stosch ends up winning by a small margin.

Of course, if the race is a blowout on either side; this won't have an effect.

Endorsements in the 22nd

2007-05-30T12:09:00.001-05:00

I had meant to get to this a few days ago, but I have been busy dealing with other things.

There has been an interesting development in the race for the 22nd. Sen. Bell has now received the endorsements from many of the local elected GOPs in the district. I know all the electeds in Montgomery County have endorsed Bell, which should ensure he performs very well in that part of the district.
There are a good number of Roanoke Valley electeds, but I don't know if all of them are endorsing Bell or not. Either way this should bode well for him.

The most interesting endorsements are from Congressman Bob Goodlatte and LG Bill Bolling. These two, in my opinion, almost ensure Bell will win this primary. Bob Goodlatte is very well liked by most everyone in the 6th Congressional district, but certainly among GOP circles in the Roanoke area. This combined with Bolling's endorsement (who served in the Senate with Bell) should basically end this race. As far as I know, this is the only Senate race Bolling or Goodlatte has made an endorsement in (and remember Goodlatte represents the 24th as well).

I guess now a question is whether Goodlatte will make an endorsement in the race for the 24th. If he does, I would say he would probably be kingmaker there as well.

I will keep everyone up to date on any more developments in this area.

Happy Memorial Day

2007-05-27T20:09:00.000-05:00

I want to wish everyone a Happy Memorial Day and also say thank you to all our great veterans, especially those who gave the ultimate sacrifice for the Red, White and Blue.

While everyone is having their BBQs and whatever else we do on our day off, take a minute to remember all those who gave their time, health and sometimes lives to keep this country great.

Family Foundation Ratings and the GOP Primaries

2007-05-25T10:57:00.000-05:00

The new Virginia Family Foundation ratings are out and here are the ratings for the primaried GOP Senators:
Fred Quayle - 63
Walter Stosch - 73
Marty Williams - 75
Emmett Hanger - 86
Brandon Bell - 89

Before my analysis, I want to remind everyone that one of the VFF's survey votes was the tax vote; so obviously all these guys got docked for that one.

Quayle is very weak for a Republican (he was the second lowest GOP rating in front of Russ Potts). Could this be enough to turn the tide against him in his race?

Stosch's number is somewhat weak. Even so, he represents an area that is probably more business oriented rather than social issues. I doubt this will have a major impact here.

Williams had low number for a Republican; but his district, like Stosch's, is probably more business minded than social issues. The one problem he does face is that he is probably in more trouble than Stosch and this may be one more nail in his coffin.

Hanger's is probably the most interesting. He has a high number (the 7th highest in the Senate), but it still is below the 100s that his fellow delegates Cline, Landes and Saxman received. Look for the Sayre folks to use this in the last few days of the primary cycle as more ammunition for ousting Emmett. Even so, Emmett's only "non-family vote" other than the tax vote was on school choice; so we will see if thats enough to fire up the 24th's primary voters.

Bell is probably in one of the strongest positions with this rating since he has a high rating and his downticket delegates were close by (Fralin had a 100, but Griffith had a 95 and Nutter received an 89 as well). It appears it will be tough for Smith to make much hay out of this, since Bell's numbers look pretty solid here.

I expect other organizations to begin releasing their surveys and ratings soon, so perhaps there will be other effects in these races as well.

Shakeup in the 27th

2007-05-22T21:21:00.001-05:00

As most of you probably already know, Mark Tate was indicted today. This seemingly should be the end of the nomination contest in the 27th, with Jill Holtzman Vogel arising victorious.
Even so, some in the blogosphere seem to think otherwise. Personally, I don't know enough about the situation yet to make a prediction so I will wait until I get a better grasp on whats going on before I try to do any further analysis.

AFP Event

2007-05-21T23:29:00.000-05:00

I just wanted to pass along the lunch Americans For Prosperity is having on June 2nd in Richmond at the Marriott.
I hope everyone can make it, as they have a great lineup and some great ideas as well.
Also, it should be a good holdover between the State Central meeting in the morning and the RPV Gala in the evening (SCC is 10-12, AFP lunch is 11:30-3, Gala begins at 5:30/6:30).
Best of all, its free!

You are cordially invited….
To Americans for Prosperity Foundation’s
Defending the American Dream-Virginia Conference
Saturday, June 2nd * 11:30am until 3:00pm
The Richmond Marriott 500 East Broad Street Richmond , VA 23219
Featuring Guest Speakers:Michael Steele, Former Lt. Governor of Maryland & GOPAC Chairman, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, AFP-Virginia Chairman Paul Harris, and Other Virginia State Legislators

Please join us for a free lunch and hear from our featured speakers to learn more about what we can do to promote our shared values of limited government, free markets and fiscal restraint.
President Reagan said the American Dream is “the heart and soul of America ; it’s the promise that keeps our nation forever good and generous, a model and hope to the world.”
That is just as true today as it was when President Reagan spoke those words more than two decades ago, but sadly, the American Dream is still under attack. Now is the time to join your fellow taxpayers to ensure that lawmakers hear our free-market message of limited government and lower taxation.

Please RSVP by Wednesday, May 30th at infova@afphq.org or (804) 622.2578. You may also register online at: www.AFPVA.org.

Americans for Prosperity Foundation is the nation's premier grassroots organization fighting for free-market policies that promote free enterprise and, in a very real way, the pursuit of the American Dream.

28th Results

2007-05-20T17:53:00.000-05:00

The Stafford GOP Committee has a blog and they have a post up on the results from the 28th's firehouse primary over the weekend. Unfortunately they only have the Stafford results and the overall, but the info is pretty good.

It appears what I predicted in this post pretty much came to fruition in this race. Stuart crushed in the northern neck and still won votes in Stafford while the 3 Stafford candidates each drew a good piece of the pie in that county, thereby diluting Stafford's influence in the nomination contest.

Hopefully my analysis will continue correctly into the general election.

I'm Back

2007-05-19T18:58:00.000-05:00

Just letting everyone know I am back from Vegas, and I am not entirely broke.

Just from an early cruise around, it appears Patricia Phillips has won the GOP nod in the 33rd and Richard Stuart has won the nod in the 28th.
If this is in fact the case, I would say Mark Herring is an almost guaranteed dem hold on that seat and Stuart is probably the smart money to win in the 28th.

We will take a look at everything once we get the numbers.

Graduation Tomorrow

2007-05-10T17:54:00.000-05:00

I haven't been very active with the blog lately as I have been finishing up school and planning my Vegas trip.
Graduation is tomorrow and Saturday and I will be going to Las Vegas from Monday-Thursday.

Don't be surprised if I don't have any posts for at least the next week.

Congrats to everyone graduating from VT!

27th Update

2007-05-04T20:02:00.000-05:00

The saga in the Mark Tate campaign finance disclosures has hit the Northern Virginia Daily today. Most all the info is pretty repetitive from whats been in the blogs; but two major statements in the article are of interest:

"This type of error calls into question all record keeping," Radtke, VCAP's political director, wrote on the blog. "Tate has either misrepresented the amount received or the number of donors is falsely reported. In either case, he has not properly disclosed donor information"...
But records maintained by the Virginia State Board of Elections don't bear out that complaint. Tate didn't file the form, but wasn't required to, according to other documents filed by the campaign, because there were no donors to identify for the six-month period in question.

Holtzman Vogel said no one from her campaign is involved with the attack on Tate in any way. "That's just ridiculous," she said. Tate's campaign finance problems have been public knowledge for some time, but "you don't hear me talking about it, ever"...
However, the VCAP post is identical to opposition research given to reporters by Holtzman Vogel supporters in recent months.

This could be a key element in this situation if in fact this information does not lead to any charges to be filed. Now Jill is on record saying she was not behind this, but this newspaper is already disputing her statement.

In light of this situation; I have heard a few Holtzman-Vogel endorsers may now withdraw their endorsements (although I have not confirmed any yet).

This story is far from over folks.

24th Update

2007-05-03T12:49:00.000-05:00

Things are finally heating up in the 24th Senate seat. On top of the new radio ads, there have been a good number of endorsements in the race.

As you have probably seen elsewhere; Sen. Hanger has the endorsements of a good number of the elected officials in the district, while Scott Sayre has the endorsement of most of the GOP committee chairs and other party leaders.

This begs the question, which ones are more important? Obviously, the party faithful/volunteers will certainly be a boon for Sayre in getting his message out and building support; but Hanger's elected officials have their own group of supporters that usually reaches beyond the "party faithful" and could provide a good base for him as well.

On a different front, the biggest question I have had (and perhaps one or more of our SWACers can help me with this) is whether there will be a backlash among the GOP committees/etc against these constitutional officers and supervisors who are behind Hanger; since most all the committee members are behind Sayre.

What makes this even more interesting is that the constitutional officers are actually putting their livelihood on the line for Hanger if there is potential for a backlash. Obviously there is already a pretty solid contingent of people in this area that are willing to try and oust an incumbent that they don't agree with; so I often wonder if they will try the same thing against the local electeds. One advantage they have is their elections are this year too; so it would be 4 years before primary challenges or the like would be levied against them; but it still is an interesting dynamic.

One of my biggest concerns surrounding this primary is that it could have lastly ramifications and could potentially divide the local parties. In the other primary races, you have not seen this level of activism and draw battle lines like this one. In most other primaries, most of the local electeds and party leaders are staying neutral; while this one has seen nearly everyone make an endorsement. I just hope the party arises from this unscathed.

I may be way of base here, but I just wanted to see what everyone thought of this situation that seems to be developing in the 24th.

27th Senate GOP Primary is Over: Results Pending

2007-05-02T17:48:00.000-05:00

Charges have now been levied that "Mark Tate is under intense criminal investigation for serious campaign finance fraud", which was first reported on VCAP's blog Conservative V.O.I.C.E. As you probably already know, VCAP has endorsed Tate's opponent; Jill Holtzman-Vogel in the 27th District. Jill is also a board member of VCAP.

Then today NLS linked the VCAP story and told us that Va GOP Chair Ed Gillespie called Tate and asked him to withdraw from the race "If these charges were true". NLS also says the charges were levied by a Holtzman-Vogel supporter to State Board of Elections and was then referred to the Loudoun County Commonwealth's Attorney (who is also a Holtzman-Vogel supporter).

If Tate is actually found guilty of these charges; it is safe to say that Holtzman-Vogel will win the nomination (in fact Tate will likely withdraw). Conversely, if Tate is found to be innocent of these charges; there will be serious questions then levied on Holtzman-Vogel's campaign, who look to be at every turn in this saga. I am not suggesting Jill planted or had anything to do with this story, but alot of the facts will point to her.
From what I see, if Tate is exonerated of these charges or they do not exist; Holtzman-Vogel will likely face the brunt of a massive backfire that will probably doom her candidacy.

What Will Happen in the Senate?

2007-05-02T15:15:00.000-05:00

With the retirement of 3 top GOP Senators, the Senate will look much different next year. There are 3 committee chairmanships up for grabs and also 3 seats on Senate Finance.

Obviously there is at least a decent chance of the dems taking control, but for the purposes of this analysis we will assume the GOP keeps control of the Senate (b/c if the dems take control, all the chairmanships will change).

Currently, 11 of the top 12 GOP Senators in senority are committee chairmen (Steve Newman being the lone Senator without one). The next 3 in line on the senority list would be Steve Newman, John Watkins, and Nick Rerras/Frank Ruff. We will assume these 3 will get chairmanships; but the next question is how will the chairmanships change?

Chichester will be vacating Finance, which will likely go to Wampler; the new Pro Tempe. That would then open up Wampler's Commerce & Labor cmte. Also up for grabs is Hawkins' Agriculture cmte and Potts' Education & Health.
The simple way to do this would be Frank Ruff for Ag, Newman for C&L and Watkins for Education & Health. Even so, you could see someone like Hanger get Ag, which would then open up Rehabilition & Social Services. As you can see, there is potential for a huge turnover here.

Another contengency is that Hanger and/or Stosch get knocked off in the primaries. Since their successors would be freshman, that would open up 2 more chairmanships; likely for Rerras/Ruff and Frank Wagner/Harry Blevins.
Related to this, who will get majority leader if Stosch is knocked off? My guess would be Stolle or Norment, but time will tell.

The last contengency is what will happen to the "Trust", especially if the RSVP group gains control of the caucus. Currently the caucus has 23 members, which would require 12 "conservatives" to gain the majority of the caucus.
Currently there are 5 members of RSVP, plus McDougle, Rerras and Wagner that most would consider "conservatives". The Potts seat will be replaced with a conservative in either Tate or Holtzman-Vogel. It also appears Robert Hurt will win Hawkins' seat (although Hurt did vote for the tax increase in 2004). If Van Hoy or another Stafford conservative wins in the 28th that would give the conservatives 11. Their magic 12th seat would come if either Bob Fitzsimmons knocks off Sen. Chuck Colgan or if Stall, Smith, Sayre or Blackburn can win their primary. This of course is also predicated on all the conservative members being re-elected.

What would happen next is anyone's guess. Most certainly one of this group would be named majority leader. Wampler would still likely be Pro Tempe b/c the entire Senate votes on that. The whole Senate also votes for committee chairmanships. The big question here is how this would all play out. Since the RSVP group would still have a grave minority of the Senate, you could potentially see the remnants of the "Trust" ally with the dems to gain all the committee chairmanships (basically stripping Martin of P&E and barring Rerras, Wagner or Newman from getting one).

Conversely, will Stolle/Norment/et al join the RSVP crowd and try to hold their status in the Senate? Would RSVP let them? Would a deal be struck where a bigger number of RSVPers get chairmanships in return for keeping some of the Trust members in theirs?

I have no hard evidence to predict any of this; but I think there could be one hellacious battle if the conservatives manage to gain control of the GOP Senate caucus.

Endorsements in the Primary Races

2007-04-25T13:12:00.000-05:00

As you have probably seen by now, Delegates Bill Janis and Jack Reid have both endorsed Joe Blackburn in the race to unseat Sen. Stosch. This comes after he already has the backing of former Congressman Tom Bliley.
I predicted this type of thing would come to fruition back in February in this post when I said Blackburn having Boyd Marcus as his consultant would greatly aid in his ability to garner endorsements and support. Both of these delegates have ties to Marcus and that is probably one big reason Blackburn was able to score these endorsements.

Our friend SWAC Girl is now asking if the same thing could happen in the Hanger race. She proposes that perhaps Delegates Cline, Landes and Saxman (although she does not reference them by name) could do the same in the race in the 24th. My hunch is that they will not, although they could always surprise me. Saxman would be the most likely to do so, since he has ties to VCAP.

In the 22nd it still appears none of the Delegates will take sides in the primary.

I will let everyone know if there are any other developments in this arena.

Race is On in the 28th

2007-04-24T15:15:00.000-05:00

As campaign season heats up, the 28th Senate District looks to potentially be a very competitve race. As you all know, the dems have convinced former Del. Albert Pollard from the northern neck to run for this seat.

The GOP nomination seems to be a bit more murky right now. Intially, it appeared John Van Hoy would be the default candidate due to his support and closeness to 1st District Chair Russ Moulton and being on State Central. Since then two more Stafford candidates have emerged: Joe Graziano, a narrowly defeated supervisor candidate; and Jonathon Myers, a long time party activist and GOP committee secretary. Had there been a convention, one these three candidates would have virtually been guaranteed the nomination due to Stafford having control of the process.

Instead, the method of nomination will be firehouse primary. This opens the possibily of a candidate from the northern neck having a shot; especially with 3 Stafford candidates in the race.

In light of this, former Westmoreland County Commonwealth's Attorney Richard Stuart has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination battle. Under most circumstances, he would have virtually no shot at the nomination. Even so, this particular situation lends itself to him potentially securing it.

First off, we are assuming that the three Stafford candidates will all have a decent showing in the Stafford/Fauquier area. Each has their own strengths and weaknesses; but it would appear they should each get a pretty equal portion of the votes in this area. Conversely, Stuart should have a good shot at securing nearly all the votes in the northern neck. Van Hoy has family and business connections in that area, but it still seems likely that Stuart will carry the day by a wide margin here.

From the 2005 GOP Gubentorial primary, total votes cast looked like this:
Stafford County: 2483
Fauquier County: 345
Frederickburg: 119
Prince William: 37
Total for Stafford Area: 2984

King George County: 420
Lancaster: 540
Northumberland: 469
Richmond County: 197
Westmoreland: 281
Total Northern Neck Area: 1907

As you can see, intially the northern neck has a severe disadvantage here. Even so, if the Stafford candidates evenly split that area they each only get around 1000 votes; while Stuart gets the 1900 from the northern neck. Whats more is that because of the dynamics of this race, Stuart may be able to even garner votes in the Stafford area b/c he has the best chance of winning. Let me explain:

First off, the dem opponent is from the northern neck. One of the biggest concerns right now in GOP circles is that since Pollard represented all 5 northern neck counties as a Delegate, that he may be able to pull big numbers here, despite the GOP tilt of the area. Conversely, the Stafford County area is already pretty strong GOP, with no reason to change based on name ID or local dynamics. Based on this knowledge, it would appear the GOP's best bet is to run someone from the northern neck to counter Pollard's advantage there.

Local election results in the '06 Senate race look like this:

Stafford County: Allen +3903
Fauquier: Allen +917
Fredericksburg: Webb +268
Prince William: Allen +36
Total Stafford Area: Allen +4588

King George County: Allen +1158
Lancaster: Allen +787
Northumberland: Allen +947
Richmond County: Allen +638
Westmoreland: Webb +16
Total Northern Neck Area: Allen +3514

Based on this, the GOP has a bigger vote advantage in Stafford. Most of this is due to shear population; but it also plays into what I said eariler. The GOP has a strong area, with no apparent reason to see a weak showing. Conversely, the GOP has less votes in the northern neck; and Pollard could potentially make that problem worse.

Most importantly, not only is Stuart from the northern neck, but is from by far the most democratic locality in the area. Allen got 58-62% of the vote in the other 4 locales but lost Westmoreland County by several votes. Whats more is that Stuart defeated incumbent CA Peggy Garland in 2003 with 64% of the vote in that same county.

Even after all this analysis, Stuart does face two potential problems. First, is his resignation of his CA job in 2005. The article says he did it due be with his family while they experienced health problems. If that is truly the reason, that won't be much of a problem; especially since Del. Pollard retired in 2005 basically for similar reasons.
The second problem for Stuart is that he gave Del. Pollard a donation in 2001 as well as Mark Warner's Inaugural committee in 2002. Even so, apparently that wasn't enough to stop the Westmoreland GOP from giving him their party's nomination for CA in 2003. Also, Jim Webb endorsed George Allen in 2000; but that didn't stop him from defeating him 6 years later.

There is no clear indication yet what will happen in the primary, but Stuart has a major strategic advantage for both the nomination and more importantly the general election. The big question here is whether Stafford Republicans would rather risk the seat to get one of their own as a Senator, or if the GOP Senate majority is more important to them.

New Finance Reports

2007-04-23T07:22:00.000-05:00

In our continuing saga of the primary battles, we have the finance reports from Jan 1-Mar 31 (they were released the beginning of last week, but there were other things going on).

As I am sure you have already seen elsewhere, the Cash on Hand looks like this:

12th District
Walter Stosch - $368,893
Joe Blackburn - $72,040

Stosch looks to be in a pretty good position at this point with a 5-1 cash advantage going into the home stretch. Expect a massive media barrage in the Richmond metro area in the next few weeks, as Stosch has enough money to probably go on TV and radio a decent amount while Blackburn will probably have to stick to mail and maybe a little radio. I would think Stosch is still the favorite here, but Blackburn seems to be getting good traction.

22nd District
Brandon Bell - $104,029
Ralph Smith - $34,836

An interesting report from Smith here. 37k of his 49k raised is from either himself or his mayoral campaign account. On the Bell side, he received a 25k contribution from the Jimmy Hazel backed Leadership for Va PAC. Neither side has really done too much yet; but Bell does have almost a 3-1 advantage here to do plenty of mailers with. Smith will need more money to win, but the big question now is how much more cash is Smith willing to drop into his own campaign? Conversely, how much will Hazel give to counter Smith?

24th District
Emmett Hanger - $117,563
Scott Sayre - $32,772

This race creates a major conundrum. Hanger has a 3-1 advantage which should prove helpful, but has spent nothing. Sayre can spend most all his money on mailers and other voter outreach while Hanger will have to spend at least some of his cash on buying signs, stickers and the like. Like Bell, Hanger also received a 25k contribution from Leadership for Va. Here again is a question of how much Mr. Hazel wants to see Sen. Hanger return to Richmond. Also, will Sayre contribute a larger amount in the following few weeks to balance it out? I still think Sayre needs more to win, but I don't know what the magic number would be.

One other major thing to keep in mind here are the ancillary accounts. The Senate Leadership Trust and other related accounts are flush with cash, while the VCAP and VCSS will doubtfully be able to deliver equivalent funding for their candidates. One thing that may aid the challengers is the entrance of primaries against Marty Williams and Fred Quayle that could spread incumbent funds a little thinner, but not a tremedous amount. It still looks like the incumbents are still in a pretty good position.

27th District
Jill Holtzman-Vogel - $169,724
Mark Tate - $156,099

Of the open seat races, the 27th leads all battles where around half a million has already been spent and another 300k+ is still in the bank of Holtzman-Vogel and Tate. Could a million be spent even before the general election gets underway? Jill still seems to be the favorite here, but I am not sure how you could accurately be able to tell.

In the 28th, a few faces have joined the race to replace Sen. Chichester. While John Van Hoy has been running for several weeks now, Joe Graziano and Jonathon Myers have entered the race as well. The reports are pretty useless here, as no one has much money. Van Hoy still seems to be the favorite here.

33rd District
John Andrews - $232,875
Patricia Philips - $13,213

Last but not least is the battle to take on Sen. Mark Herring. Developer John Andrews has a massive financial advantage over his opponent Patricia Philips (250k of his 350k raised came from himself and family); but she seems to have more of the "grassroots". Also, this race is tough to know much about right now until the problems with the LCRC get straightened out, including their calls. Furthermore, Andrews is hindered by being a developer in an increasingly anti-developer area. At this point, I would favor Philips for the nomination and Herring still as a strong favorite for the general election.

I will try and keep everyone up to date with developments in these races.

Update

2007-04-19T22:02:00.000-05:00

Just letting everyone know some of the updates on the situation here at VT.

First off, classes will return on Monday; but there is a rather complicated system that will be used for determining grades wherein each student has some individual choices.

Second, there are a number of sporting events that are cancelled, including the Spring Game. A full list can be found at hokiesports.com.

Lastly, continue to keep everyone in your thoughts and prayers as a good number of the community will be hurting for some time.

I will resume political blogging next week sometime.

Thanks to Everyone

2007-04-17T20:43:00.000-05:00

I want to personally thank everyone in the political and blogging community for the outpouring of support for me and my schoolmates. We have all been through a very tough time these last 36 hours or so, but it has greatly helped to know that everyone in America and around the world is praying for and with us to help heal. You have been great.

For those of you who were not here today, go to HokieSports.com where you can see a picture from the candlelight vigil tonight and the video of the convocation we had today.

Thanks again everyone. You can't imagine how much you have helped.

Events Tomorrow

2007-04-16T22:22:00.000-05:00

I would encourage everyone to come show support and come tomorrow to the convocation at Cassell Coliseum at 2 PM. I assume it will be open to the public, but I don't know the details yet. I know Governor Kaine and AG McDonnell will be here as well as most likely all the other major political figures in the state.
I just heard in the last 5 minutes that President Bush will also be in attendance.

Also tomorrow evening on the drillfield there will be a candlelight vigil at 7:30 PM.

Dark Day in Blacksburg

2007-04-16T11:52:00.000-05:00

Right now the number is 22 dead and 28 wounded and that includes one shooter dead. They believe he/she acted alone, but that is not confirmed. There is no apparent motive currently other than they believe the shooting at West AJ this morning was a man shooting his girlfriend and Resident Advisor.

From all reports, this is the worst school shooting ever.

School is closed today and tomorrow and there is supposed to be some type of convocation service in Cassell Coliseum tomorrow at 2 PM.

If you have family or something that you want to reunite with, they are telling everyone to go to the Inn at VT off Prices Fork Road. Also, if you call someone and do not get them; do not be automatically alarmed. The cell towers are jammed like crazy, so it may be difficult to get through.

I will keep everyone updates as much as possible, but it hard to say how long it will take to fully grasp what has happened.

UPDATE: The death toll is reported to be 32 now. Governor Kaine has released a statement and is returning from Tokyo. I will get the link to any and all press releases as soon as I can get them. Virginia Tech President Charles Steger's comments can be heard here.

UPDATE2: Sorry for the delay but I just got internet service back. The press conference at 4:30 confirmed 2 dead at West AJ and 31 dead at Norris Hall including the shooter. 15 are still being hospitalized. The shooter was reported to have committed suicide. LG Bolling was on Fox News and AG McDonnell has been on CNN so far. That is still basically all the info that has been released. Tomorrow we should know some of the victims and hopefully the shooter. One key note is that the police have not 100% satisfied themselves that the two shootings are related (although it would seem they are).

UPDATE3: Apparently they are still not sure the Norris shooter and West AJ shooter were the same person. The "person of interest" in the first shooting was being questioned when the second one occurred, so it looks like there were potentially two unrelated shootings today. This storyline gets more murky each time another press conference is done.

Gloves Come Off in the 22nd

2007-04-15T12:49:00.000-05:00

Friday I attended the Roanoke County Luncheon, where Sen. Bell and Ralph Smith were the speakers in a town hall format. It was around 45 people there, including many of activists in the Roanoke Valley. Specifically absent were Delegates Griffith and Fralin; who are both staying neutral in the Senate primary.
Of those in attendance I would say about 10 had Bell stickers, 15-20 had Smith and the rest were wearing none.

Each candidate gave their opening statements and then they took questions from the audience.

Smith used his statement to go on the attack; pointing out taxes, business rights, and out of control spending that he would be a better at than the current Senator. This comes in stark contrast to his speech several months ago to the Montgomery GOP where he simply talked about open government. He also pointed to his long term committment to the party by citing all his leadership roles and volunteer work he has done for the party over the years.

Bell's statements were typical of the incumbents where he says he hopes to set the record straight on some misconceptions and misinterpretations of his record. He also pointed to illegal immigration as a major issue that we need try and address here at the state level since the feds wont do anything about it.

In the Q&A section, there were a couple of interesting moments. One came when a lady asked about Smith's proposal for a website that shows government contractors and the business they did for the state. Everyone seemed to agree it was a great idea; including Senator Bell who pointed out that it already exists (the website is datapoint.apa.virginia.gov) and cited work Smith's company had done for the state as evidence of what you can find there.

Another interesting thing was there is a guy who has been passing out a several page handout on "RINO hunting" and basically showcasing something Bell did that was non-conservative. He has been doing this for about a year now, and this month it was a Roanoke Times article on the transportation solution. Anyway, during the Q&A session, a Bell supporter stood up and chided the gentleman who distributed these as hurting the party and actually being offended by them. That gentleman then replied: Brandon Bell offends me!

All in all it was a good event and I think everyone enjoyed the unique setup.

I saw two major things from this event.
The first was that Smith has seemingly changed his strategy. As I told you 2 months ago, he had to go on the attack and talk about taxes and the smoking ban to ever have a shot at Bell. He did just that at this event, but there is a catch. I imagine everyone in that room has already made up their mind about who they will be supporting; so the key now is for him to get his message out to the broader public.
The second is that Bell probably in a better position than many of the other primaried Senators in that his own district GOP people are either behind him or are staying neutral. This is in stark contrast to say the Hanger race where Rockingham Chair Mike Meredith and nearly every committee member in the locales is behind Sayre. Bell actually has some support from the committees, and he doesn't have any of the leadership working against him.

I don't think a tremendous amount has changed in this race yet; but we will know much more after the financial reports are made public in the next day or so. If Smith has a ton of money (either raised or self-financed) he could make this race interesting.

Interesting Statistics

2007-04-11T17:13:00.000-05:00

Facebook now allows you to see various statistics within a "network" (this is essentially the school you attend).
One of the statistics you can see is the percentages of each political views. Obviously this isn't a perfect example, b/c alot of people do not post their political beliefs; but it is a good guide.

Below is the breakdowns for some of our schools here in Virginia:

Virginia Tech: 15% Conservative, 14% Moderate, 13% Liberal
UVa: 21% Liberal, 13% Moderate, 10% Conservative
JMU: 18% Liberal, 14% Moderate, 14% Conservative
VMI: 38% Conservative, 16% Moderate, 3% Liberal
GMU: 16% Liberal, 14% Moderate, 10% Conservative
VCU: 21% Liberal, 13% Moderate, 8% Conservative

Based on the results I would say this is pretty accurate. I was naturally glad to see the conservatives edge the liberals here in Blacksburg.

If you want to know another school's breakdown, leave it in the comments section and I will get it for you.

Smoking Ban

2007-04-10T15:07:00.000-05:00

I didn't really want to weigh in on this issue since I know I cannot convince one single person to change their opinion on this; but its been a very slow week in the blog world.

Many of you have seen both arguements for and against an indoor smoking ban. Proponents of a ban say that we need it to prevent people from being subject to second-hand smoke while opponents point to property rights and the rights of business owners to make their own decisions.

I would like people to compare this to another social issue. President Clinton once said something to the effect that in a perfect world abortion would be legal but no one would choose to have them. I think there are a good number of people who would conditionally agree with that statement (even though in reality it would never happen). Why not apply the same concept to the smoking ban?
What if every restaurant banned smoking, but it was still legal? Yet again, this isn't practical and would never happen; but it shows what could happen.

As you can probably guess, I am not a proponent of an indoor smoking ban, b/c I am a very business minded person and believe in the free market. I think a smoking ban could hurt any number of businesses if it were passed; simply b/c it would eliminate the ability of a restaurant owner to create a "niche" market. In fact, restaurant owners who have already banned smoking in their establishments would probably be the ones hurt most from a bill like this; due to their clients being able to frequent any restaurant they choose after a bill like this passed.

I fully realize that one day Virginia will have an indoor smoking ban, simply because people (more specifically voters) all too often put their own wants and benefits ahead of the public good. Even so, that doesn't mean its the right thing to do.

Veto Session Begins

2007-04-04T11:08:00.000-05:00

I have heard that some are expecting this session to take more than just today.

Some of the governor's amendments to the transportation plan seem to be a little concerning for some, specifically the reach of the impact fees (from 6 counties to 67).

There may be a few more issues that are taken up again by the Assembly.

More Retirements

2007-04-03T14:04:00.000-05:00

With the veto session tomorrow, we should know by Thursday all the General Assembly members who are retiring. Many members choose to announce their retirements on the final day of session on the floor.

We already know about several in both the House and Senate.

We have now confirmed that Del. Leo Wardrup will in fact deliver his retirement address tomorrow.

Another interesting one is Del. Beverly Sherwood. In today's Winchester Star, they say she "is said to be giving strong consideration to another campaign". I would think she would have made up her mind by now, so there is an outside chance Sherwood retires. I haven't heard anything to suggest this, but this is still an interesting comment in the newspaper.

The only other potential retirement I have heard is that of Del. Melanie Rapp. I cannot 100% confirm this, but it sounds very likely. I do not know much more than that as to when she is supposed to announce or anything else.

Are there any more retirements we should know about before tomorrow?

AFP in Staunton

2007-04-02T10:18:00.000-05:00

This past Saturday, Americans for Prosperity had a luncheon at Rowe's in Staunton to try and get the grassroots fired up about getting government spending under control. About 70 people showed up to the event to hear from Del. Chris Saxman, AG Bob McDonnell and AFP Director Whitney Duff.

All of them spoke on the out-of-control spending that has been going on in the Congress and General Assembly and how we need to cut pork and earmarks. Strangely enough, the "Bridge to Nowhere" is at the town Saxman, Alaska which has some ancestoral relationship to Del. Chris Saxman.

Another dynamic there was the Senate primary. Being in Staunton, we were right in the heart of the 24th Senate district. Scott Sayre was there and seemed to be well taken in by the crowd. Even so, only about a third of those in attendance were wearing Sayre buttons (although alot of people will probably not publicly support anyone in this race). Even so, based on the group (anti-taxers and spending cutters) I would have expected a bigger percentage to be openly backing Sayre.

There was also some statewide talk going on. Some are pushing Chris Saxman to run for LG in 2009, which it appears he is still considering.
The major talk was surrounding Bob McDonnell and what his future holds. As usual, alot of people were hoping he will run for governor in '09 and some in the crowd are already supporting him. I did hear one person encourage McDonnell to run for U.S. Senate due to his military credentials, but I don't think it is very likely that will happen.

On that front, I think it is interesting that McDonnell is now starting to try to be a crusader of taxes and spending (or at least appear that way). Historically he has largely talked about AG issues like eminent domain and crime when he speaks at events. We now see him broadening his issue base to these talking points about taxes as well as his helping get the transportation plan through the General Assembly. It appears he is implementing his full court press to begin gathering support for the race in '09.

83rd District Update

2007-04-01T13:19:00.000-05:00

As many of you probably saw, NLS broke the story that Del. Leo Wardrup will not seek re-election. I had been hearing this for several weeks, but still nothing has been concrete yet.

I heard yesterday that at the Va Beach GOP breakfast Del. Wardrup was circulating petitions and also was doing a lit drop afterwards. Furthermore, I have heard that Wardrup has told people he doesn't know why anyone thinks he is retiring b/c he has never said that to anyone.

Either way, many are predicting that he will announce his retirement on the House floor on Wednesday. This seems to be the most probable outcome.

Joe Bouchard has already announced he is running for the seat as a dem; and perhaps others will try for that nomination if Wardrup steps down.

On the GOP side, Del. John Welch's legislative aide Robert Rummells appears to be running for the seat. I would imagine others will join the race; but Rummells should be considered the frontrunner right now for the GOP nomination.

One thing to keep in mind is the $109k Wardrup has in the bank. If he chooses to give that to his successor, the GOP will be in a much stronger position to hold the seat. Getting Wardrup's endorsement could also prove vital to getting the GOP nod here, if he gave his entire warchest to whomever he wanted to replace him.

A Few Things

2007-03-28T13:30:00.000-05:00

First off, Joe Leming will not be challenging Riley Ingram in the 62nd.

Second, I have heard that Eric Ferguson has competition for the dem nomination in 9th HOD, but I have not confirmed that yet.

Third, the RTD's Jeff Schapiro and Michael Hardy seem to think Tim Kaine is the "solution governor" after their article on the transportation plan yesterday entitled "Kaine Solves Road Block". I didn't realize that sitting on your rocking chair and never proposing any form of solution lets you "solve a roadblock"just by making some amendments, but apparently these two guys seem to think that way. And you guys say there is no media bias.

Lastly, it appears there may be several more retirements in the general assmbly, but I do not have confirmation on them yet; but I will let you know as soon as I do.

New RPV Site

2007-03-26T18:18:00.000-05:00

Head over to the RPV Site and check out the new look.

No major overall changes, it just looks a little different and should be easier to navigate.

Stosch God?

2007-03-23T17:13:00.000-05:00

NLS has an interesting excerpt from a Walter Stosch email or something.

Now I don't think this is a campaign changing statement, but any bad PR in a race like this cannot be good.

Keep an eye on this race if more things like this arise.

Tomer vs Target?

2007-03-22T13:52:00.000-05:00

The Danville Register & Bee has an interesting article today about a proposed Target store that the city of Danville wants to partially finance to get it. City Council member and dem candidate for the 14th HOD district Adam Tomer was the major opposition to the plan.

I bring this up b/c this could become an issue in the race in the 14th, if for no other reason it will raise the name ID of Tomer. Whether that ID is good or bad remains to be seen.

The basic background is that the city of Danville wants to give Target an incentive package of around $8 million to get Target to open a store in their city. The majority of the council voted in favor of this measure, but Tomer and 2 others opposed the plan. Tomer argues they should only give financial incentives for industrial employers and not commercial/retail establishments.

This could be good for him in the local business community, b/c I suspect many local business owners would be hurt by a Target store. He may be able to garner some support this way.

The flip side is he could lose support as people want the increased employment and tax benefits this plan could bring. I obviously do not know the details so I will not speculate on how good the plan is; but I have a feeling some believe it is a good thing (and in politics, perception and reality might as well be the same thing). If people in Danville feel Tomer has tried to block an economic development effort; he could be in deep trouble.

Just for info's sake, currently the web poll on the paper's website shows 47 votes against the plan and 43 in favor.

This is just one issue that could create an interesting dynamic in an already interesting HOD race for 2007.

Why All the Retirements?

2007-03-21T14:46:00.000-05:00

Anyone know why this is magical year for GOPs to retire?

My only guess is that with all the special sessions lately, alot of people are getting sick of this. Many of these people have businesses and families that they don't want to be away from for 3-5 months out of the year. They ran assuming 45-60 days and then they get that many more.

Any other ideas?

Reid Retiring

2007-03-20T09:55:00.000-05:00

As many of you have probably seen, Del. Jack Reid is retiring. He is supposed to have a press conference at the Capitol tomorrow to make his formal announcement.

It appears that Jimmie Massie III will be the GOP nominee for the seat. I don't know very much about him other than he owns some type of consulting business (James Massie III Inc) and is a local Republican activist. The GOP local leadership is going to get behind Massie so it appears a shoo-in for the nomination.

Its a solid GOP district, so I cannot imagine the dems having much of a chance here. We will see if they even run anybody.

Dudley Retires, Others May Follow

2007-03-16T13:03:00.000-05:00

The Roanoke Times has the official announcement that Del. Allen Dudley will retire from his seat. The funniest part of the article at the beginning it talks about a "democratic district held for the GOP". The 9th may have been democratic in the past, but since redistricting not a single democrat has carried it. This is typical of the RT though.

This article also claims that local GOPs say Franklin County supervisor Charles Poindexter is the frontrunner for the nomination (I have heard this as well).

It appears Dudley's son may not get into this race, so Poindexter may have an easy path to the nomination. If there is no nomination fight and Dudley dumps his $97k into Poindexter's account; we should be off to a good start.

I am still hearing Sen. Charles Hawkins is likely to retire; but it sounds that some people in the region are trying to get him to stay. This is mainly due to Chichester's retirement, which now kicks Hawkins to number two in Senate GOP leadership. Many believe he could really help out his area by being in the Senate on more term.

The word still is that if Hawkins retires, Del. Robert Hurt will run to replace him and win the nomination (Hawkins will endorse him and ensure he wins). I have not heard any potential candidates for Hurt's seat yet; but obviously it hasn't be vacated either (I am told there are some names floating already though).

As I said in an eariler post, Dudley's retirement should give us a better shot of defending the seat. Nominating a Franklin County supervisor should make our chances even better.

Primaries Galore

2007-03-14T15:59:00.000-05:00

As you all know, there a pretty good number of Senate GOP primaries coming this year.

Today, Not Virgil Goode at Virginia Political Wire is reporting that Del. Riley Ingram will be primaried from the right as well. They cite his support of the Warner tax increase as the key reason. NVG also claims that Ingram will run as an indy if he is defeated in the primary. We will see if his challenger gets much traction in this relatively solid GOP district.

It should be interesting to see if anymore House challenges arise as well. The only other one I have heard rumored is Bob Tata. I have heard he will primaried over his vote against Bob Marshall's abortion bill. We will see if that materializes or not.

On the dem side, I have heard Onzlee Ware is likely to be primaried as well; but I have not heard if that is definite or not yet either. This would be over his support for the "independent" candidates for Roanoke City Council last year after the incumbents failed to get the dem nomination and the dems effectively ran two slates of candidates in the race. Ware supported the incumbents and now has made some in dem circles mad at him. It should be an interesting race if it happens.

Tradesports Predictor?

2007-03-13T11:36:00.000-05:00

I was looking at Tradesports.com last night and noticed you can now bet on what party will win a state in 2008.

Virginia is a 75% likelihood of a GOP win. For those of you dems out there who honestly believe Virginia will go blue in 2008; here is your chance to make some cash. You can buy a contract at 30 to pay 100; so you can more than triple your money in a year and a half.

Obviously this isn't an exact science, but the best predictor of anything is usually something that people have wagered money on.

With Retirement, Where Will All the Money Go?

2007-03-12T15:20:00.000-05:00

This morning John Chichester officially announced his retirement from the State Senate. There are various names floating already, but its hard to say how all that will shake out in the coming weeks.

My big question right now is what will happen to all the money? Chichester has around $360k in his campaign account and controls another $565k in the Senate Leadership Trust. Theoretically he could give his campaign account to whoever he wants to replace him in the Senate, especially if the rumor that his brother Dan will be running for the seat is true.

The Trust he could either liquidate to his remaining Senate allies or just give control to new Pro Tempe Bill Wampler (new Pro Tempe assuming we hold the majority).

The reason I bring this up is because if Chichester decides to give his entire warchest (over $900k) to the primaried Senators; the effort to unseat them just alot tougher.

I will try and get more info on this; but I thought I would try to start a dialogue on this topic from the get go.

Who Else Will Retire?

2007-03-11T16:14:00.000-05:00

Over the past few days there has been considerable discussion over the seemingly likely possibility that Sen. John Chichester will be retiring after this year. The 28th is still a very strong GOP district and I expect the Republicans to hold the seat whether he retires or not.

That got me thinking about who else may retire in the Assembly, but more especially the Senate. One name that's possible is Sen. Charles Hawkins from the Danville area. That would be an interesting dynamic if he retired b/c it would create open seat races for both House and Senate in Franklin and Pittsylvania Counties, as Del. Dudley has retired and Del. Hurt would likely run to replace Hawkins. If this occurs, it would potentially help the GOP candidate in the 9th; as it would ensure GOPs go to the polls to support the Senate candidate as well as the House race. I have heard nothing to suspect this will occur; but Hawkins is a major Chichester ally and would probably retire when Chichester does due to his age and close relationship.

The other race I have heard nothing out of is Sen. Emmett Hanger. As you know, he has a primary challenger this year and would seemingly be out starting to campaign and ask for money by now. I have seen or heard nothing from or of his campaign. I have even heard that he hasn't decided if he will seek re-election this year. Many of you know that Sen. Hanger can sometimes decide things at the last minute (remember his LG run in 2005?) but this would seemingly indicate he is at least contemplating not running. If he chooses not to run, look for several others to enter the GOP nomination race with Sayre; since it would now be an open seat with no chance of making any enemies. I will have more on that if and when it happens.

The last potential retirement is Sen. Chuck Colgan. I have heard many rumors on what he will do and right now I am hearing he is about 75% likely to retire. Even so, I imagine the dems will be pushing super hard to keep him in the race for one more term to try and make the push for the majority. The GOP will almost undoubtably win the seat if he retires; and may have a shot even if he doesn't. As has been discussed elsewhere in past posts throughout the blogosphere; Colgan will have some major obstacles in his race this year that he has not had in past elections. Those issues along with his age may finally convince him to hang it up.

Are there any other retirements anyone is hearing about?

With Dudley Retiring, What Happens Now?

2007-03-08T18:09:00.000-05:00

As reported yesterday by NLS, Del. Allen Dudley will be retiring. This comes in the wake of a very tough race in 2005 and that same challenger Eric Ferguson deciding to run for the seat again in 2007.

I assume that Ferguson will still remain the democratic frontrunner for the that nomination; but others may arise with the seat now being an open contest.

On the GOP side, I am hearing Dudley's son AJ looks to be the early frontrunner for the nomination. AJ was rumored to be interested in running this year if Ferguson defeated his father in 2005; so it looks like he may get that matchup.

The GOP will start with 2 advantages in this race now. The first is that the district is Republican leaning, and is drawn where it very tough for a dem to run to be able to win it. This results from the example from our 2005 race; where the dem won conservative Franklin County; but was unable to parlay that crossover into conservative Floyd and Pittsylvania Counties. Ferguson's major obstacle against any opponent will be building support in these two counties to hold down the losses that Franklin will need to offset for him.

The second is money. Dudley has almost $100k on hand, which will undoubtably goto his son's campaign fund. In a district like this one; thats a great start. Ferguson will have the advantage that the dems know he can perform well, and will probably send a good chunk of change his way.

I personally think this development helps GOP chances of retaining the seat b/c Dudley's problems won't be an issue now. The big question mark is whether his son will be punished for some of his father's business decisions and stupid mistakes.

I felt that with Dudley barely winning even with a gubentorial election to drive turnout, he would be a very precarious situation in an off year election. Now a new candidate can hopefully fight their own battle, and make the election about issues instead of personal problems. That should favor the GOP here.

We will keep an eye on this race to see what happens next; but I think this should be good for the Republican house majority.

Whats Goin On?

2007-03-06T09:05:00.001-05:00

Sorry I haven't posted anything for a week folks, but I haven't seen anything major going on.
What have I missed?

Giuliani Racks Up Cash for RPV

2007-02-28T13:23:00.000-05:00

The fundraiser in Vienna Monday with presidentia hopeful Rudy Giuliani was apparently a major success. On the RPV website, they say that this fundraiser generated over $100,000 for the party coffers. This is interesting b/c I heard a few days ago that this fundraiser was looking like it would raise around 25-30k. Whats more, since I assume this event would be splitting the money between Rudy and the RPV; it must have raised a total of over 200k.

There are many more GOP heavy hitters coming to Virginia in the near future; so hopefully they will be as successful as this one.

What remains to be seen is if Gillespie can really deliver the massive fundraising prowess that was advertised before his election as RPV chair. The proposed staff positions and other major expenses like the new TV ad attacking Governor Kaine will cost alot more money than the RPV has spent in the past. Fundraisers like this may help him deliver on that promise; but getting presidential candidates to Virginia a year before the primaries should be relatively easy for any party chair. The key will be delivering major fundraising with some of the other lumanaries like Elaine Chao, Tony Snow and Mary Matalin and making those fundraisers as successful as this one.

22nd Update

2007-02-27T14:43:00.000-05:00

My overview of this race can be seen here.

Today Ralph Smith was the guest speaker at the Montgomery County GOP luncheon. The luncheon was well attended, a few new faces; most of them coming from Roanoke to support Smith.

The interesting thing from today was what Smith talked about in his speech.

First off, he began talking about how the Senate district has 2 parts; the Roanoke Valley and the New River Valley; and that the Senator needs to remember that and not forget about the part they aren't from. He pointed to his election as Roanoke City mayor where he reached out and listened to the NW area that voted about 3-5% for him and how he tried to represent everyone as mayor.

He then basically spent the rest of the time on open government. He wants to see a state run website that would allow the user to look up any and all government contracts any company has as well as a detailed financial statement of where all our money is going.

What I took from this was the following: first and foremost, Smith is not the best speaker. I think he did his best when talking about the open government thing (b/c I guess he is most passionate about it) but all-in-all he isn't a great speaker.
Second, the issues he has chosen aren't that good in my book strategically. They may be good issues, but Bell is disliked for his smoking ban bill and the support for tax increases. If Smith is going to win this primary; he has to focus on those two issues and convince people that he is better than Bell on them.
Lastly, he does need to continue to talk about his background. His experience in the party and his devotion to the cause should help him. Also his story of how he began work at a gas station and built a company from his hard work should play well; especially in the Roanoke and Christianburg business communities.

All in all I think Smith needs a new strategy if he is going to win, but his story is a pretty good one.

UPDATE: At the luncheon there were flyers from Brandon Bell that listed his supporters. By my count, there were 615 names in the list (I think it must be all his donors). From what I can tell, there are some on there who do not live in the district; but most of them do. There are about 115-120k registered voters in the district. A 10% primary turnout means around 12,000 total votes. 600 votes out of 12,000 might not seem like much; but thats a pretty good bank of people to raise money and do grassroots work for you. We will now have to see how Smith's organization shapes up.

What Will Kaine Do?

2007-02-26T12:41:00.000-05:00

Just wondering what everyone thinks Kaine will do with the new transportation agreement.

I am sure he will make a recommendation to take out the general fund money, as well as probably cut the amount of debt issued from this plan.

I am not sure this battle is really over yet. The question is whether NOVA/Tidewater voters want Kaine to agree with this plan or if they want the legislators to agree with what Kaine says.

Cox and the House Leadership

2007-02-22T16:00:00.000-05:00

I just ran into an interesting piece of info last night. While looking at VPAP, I noticed that former Speaker Vance Wilkins' Dominion Leadership Fund had been "defunded". After looking into it, he gave the remaining amount of money in the account ($77,972 to be exact) to Majority Whip PAC, which is controlled by GOP House Majority Whip Kirk Cox.
Whats even more interesting is that the entire balance of cash raised for that PAC is only about $85,000; so basically all of the money came from Wilkins' contribution.

Anyway, this got me thinking what could be going on. I have heard that Cox wants to be speaker whenever Bill Howell steps down from the position.

I have heard many GOPs complain that our current speaker needs to be more like Vance, saying Vance was much better. It seems that Wilkins is still very well liked amongst alot of the GOP faithful (at least for his leadership abilities). If this means that Vance Wilkins will be endorsing Kirk Cox for speaker, whenever that occurs; that should give Cox a huge advantage in that endeavor. Not only will people want Vance to pick his best opinion of who will do a good job; but his connections are probably still solid and would provide alot of help to whoever he wanted to get Speaker.

This falls into another larger issue that I will address either tomorrow or next week. I just wanted to set the stage for what could/would happen in the future.

Good House Race Rundowns

2007-02-21T11:16:00.000-05:00

Thanks to Too Conservative for pointing out this site from the Virginia FREE that has pretty good breakdown of each district with a competitive challenger. It gives a bio of each candidate and also a few former election results.

It should be a pretty good site to check out in addition to blog analysis for these races.

24th Update

2007-02-19T20:47:00.000-05:00

VCAP Blog has the lowdown on the official announcement today from primary challenger Scott Sayre. It seemed to be interesting day, having five seperate locations for his kickoff. In a district of that size, it was probably a good idea; that way he could have 50 people at each and say he had 250 total (whereas it would be very tough to get 250 to one place). It sounds like it was pretty successful, so we will see what happens next in this race.

I have not heard when Sen. Hanger's campaign kickoff will be, but will update everyone when I find out.

Governor Sitting on His Hands

2007-02-16T13:51:00.000-05:00

As we all know, Gov. Kaine would love nothing better than to see any type of transportation proposal/solution die or not get accomplished this session. He is banking on being able to pick up seats in NOVA and Hampton Roads by campaigning on a failure of the GOP Assembly to get anything done on transportation.

It looks like some GOPs are firing back. The Washington Times has this article where it quotes a few GOP electeds that say they want Kaine to show some help in this transportation fight. All of this while our friends over at Southwest by Southeast say that Tim Kaine is "AWOL" on the transportation debate.

I was just wondering if anyone thinks the people will partially hold the governor responsible for nothing happening on transportation if that occurs? It seems that Kaine's plan could backfire; b/c the GOP can say the dems don't want to get anything accomplished.

At any rate, I still hope we can get something done this session; to avoid a major showdown in November.

Big Issues This Year

2007-02-15T10:24:00.000-05:00

I was just wondering wat everyone thought the big campaign issues will be in this years HOD and Senate elections.

Obviously there will be transportation in NOVA and Tidewater, but will there be any other regional issues?

What will be the statewide issues that come to fruition this year?

Transportation Money Source?

2007-02-12T15:57:00.000-05:00

The Washington Post via Mason Conservative has an article about a proposal that has passed the Senate and now moves to the House on a slot machine sized horserace betting machine that could generate $300 million for transportation.

I actually pointed this out back in September when I saw Del. Hamilton had put in a bill on it. I wondered if it would get anywhere.

It looks like an interesting idea.

Challenge in the 28th?

2007-02-08T16:28:00.000-05:00

John Chichester is probably the second most disliked GOP Senator (after Potts) statewide amongst the GOP faithful. This is interesting because while there are already 4 primary challenges that are official or well known; and the 28th isn't one of them.

For those of you who don't know; reasons GOPs everywhere cannot stand him range from his support of tax increases for the past few years, to being the stumbling block on the budget under Gilmore and the GOP House, to getting Potts his chairmanship after 2005. Probably his biggest sin was giving cover and allowing Governor Warner to raise taxes without being held responsible by asking for a higher amount than Warner wanted; to allow him to be a "compromiser".

Chichester represents a solid GOP district that runs from Fauquier County, through Stafford, down the penisula to Northumberland.

As Senate Pro Tempe, he is essentially kingmaker in the Senate and makes all the decisions. He can pretty much be held responsible for anything that happens in that body.

With all this, why has no one stepped forward to challenge him? He should be one of the easiest targets in the state, b/c GOPs all over want to see this man ousted.

On the money front, Chichester has $336,675 on hand. Maybe thats why no one has stepped forward yet. Not only that, but he controls the Senate Leadership Trust; which boasts another $565,638 on hand. Obviously that money will be used to help all incumbents; but Chichester still has almost a million bucks at his disposal.

I firmly believe someone will eventually announce they are challenging Chichester; but I have no idea who it will be. An early rumor was that Del. Lingamfelter would be challenging, but it appears that was incorrect (he will probably run for LG in 2009). Most likely, a challenge would have to be from Stafford to have a shot. Obviously the candidate here will make the difference in a rating for this race.

I will keep everyone up-to-date on any new developments here.

Potential Primary in the 13th

2007-02-07T15:30:00.000-05:00

The 13th Senatorial district is currently occupied by 4-term Senator Fred Quayle. This district runs from Chesapeake/Portsmouth through southside areas like Southampton and Surry Counties.

Quayle has received alot of grief from GOPs for his support of tax increases in 2004 and this year's gas tax proposal (he voted against the Stolle/Norment plan). He is also one of the 4 GOPs who voted to give Potts his Education and Health chairmanship even after running as an independent for Governor in 2005.

This district seemingly has a better chance for a takedown due to it being very spread out and the ability to challenge Quayle on both social and fiscal issues. Fiscal issues being tax increases and social being that he gave pro-choice Potts the chairmanship of the committee that deals with most abortion related legislation. Quayle will have to build a general coalition to win, as opposed to most Senators we have seen who can bank on the social conservatives to carry the day for them. Whats worse for Quayle is that this district isn't nearly as solidly GOP as other seats (there is already a declared dem Steven Heretick in this race); so dems may actually support a challenger in the primary to get a better shot at a victory here. This of course does have the advantage for Quayle in that GOPs may be leary of voting against him in fear of losing the seat.

No one has officially announced for this seat, but Bearing Drift reported a few days ago that Del. Chris Jones or 4th District GOP Chair Wayne Ozmore may challenge. Either of these would be strong challengers. My guess is Jones probably won't b/c he would essentially have to give up his safe GOP delegate seat to challenge Quayle. Ozmore on the other hand could be a major force having connections throughout the district; and possibly the backing of Congressman Randy Forbes. I don't really know much more than that at this time regarding who might challenge.

On the money front, Quayle has $57,548 on hand; which is pretty low. This low money amount may be more fuel to convince someone to challenge; since they could match him in money very quickly.

Like the Watkins race, this obviously doesn't have a rating unless he gets a challenger; and even then that person would dictate some of the matchups. Even so, I think Quayle is probably one of the more vunerable incumbents this year if he draws a strong challenger.

Clarification

2007-02-07T15:27:00.000-05:00

I want to sincerely apologize for pointing out RSVP as a organization that would giving financial resources to Senate challengers this year.
They will only be helping GOP candidates in open seat nominations or GOP challenges to democrats.

Again I apologize for the misinterpretation of the group. I misunderstood all of its goals.

Potential Primary in the 10th

2007-02-06T14:12:00.000-05:00

Incumbent Sen. John Watkins is another "moderate" Senator who may be targeted in this year's round of GOP primaries. The only potential name I have heard is David Johnson, who works in the AG's office. This is not certain yet, so it may not even happen.

Watkins' seat is a suburban Richmond seat on the west end, and encompasses alot of the same type of people as Walter Stosch's 12th. For this reason, a potential primary here would see the same issues and developments as the 12th's race. Again, this area is very heavily GOP and those GOPs are probably more fiscally conservative than socially (that is, their motivation is fiscal issues). Yet again, there would also be almost no concern for GOPs that the seat would be lost if a new candidate got the nomination.

This gives a potential challenger ammunition since the arguement against these "moderates" is their tax/fiscal stance as opposed to social issues. Watkins supported the '04 tax increase and was probably an original supporter of Chichester's tax plan last year.

The obviously major difference between this race and the Stosch-Blackburn race is that it would not involve a member of the Senate leadership.

Remember that Watkins is the other GOP who just voted against both transportation proposals in the Finance committee. This will allow him to argue that he has voted against not one, but two tax/fee increase proposals recently and that he is actually a very fiscally conservative Senator. Much like Hanger, his district does not suffer from massive traffic problems and therefore will probably not be held in contempt for voting No on proposals that raise taxes/fees but generate relatively little money for his district. Obviously there will be more concern for transportation here than in Hanger's district; but it is still not viewed as a major problem.

Lastly, Watkins has $156,272 on hand. Johnson may decide not to enter the race since Watkins already has a good start and would be tough to match this late in the game.

Obviously there is no rating until there is a formal decision to challenge; but Watkins would begin as the favorite if a primary battle develops.

24th District Primary

2007-02-05T13:25:00.000-05:00

In the central Shenandoah Valley there will be a Senate primary this year as well. It will be between incumbent Senator Emmett Hanger and Lexington/Buena Vista businessman Scott Sayre.

Like all the other primaries, this one centers around Hanger's support of the tax increase in '04 and also original support for Chichester's tax plan in the past 2 years.
A few other things surrounding this race are that some people in this district are mad at the way Emmett handled his LG run in 2005, where he waited until March to begin gathering petition signatures (and we all know how that turned out). One other small thing was his castration bill last year has some people wondering what he is doing in Richmond.

Sayre is originally from Waynesboro, now lives in Lexington, and runs a business in Buena Vista. This should be a good set up for him, since he should know people in a couple different parts of the district starting out.

Other advantages Sayre enjoys are having the Rockingham Chairman and VCAP board member Mike Meredith in the district, as well as anti-tax millionaire Walter Curt nearby to give plenty of dough to his campaign. Many of the committee members in these locales are very ticked off at Emmett so he should also have a good base of supporters starting out. One final advantage is the solid GOP lean of the district, which like we have seen in other districts, should prevent concern of losing a seat by ousting an incumbent. A GOP will win this seat no matter who runs.

Hanger enjoys having a good bit of the business community still behind him, as well as the "evangelical" community. This area is very socially conservative, and that probably favors Hanger. Like most other incumbents, no one is questioning his socially conservative creditials. Also, Emmett has lived in Augusta County his entire life and has alot of friends there as well. Lastly, due to the strong GOP lean here, there will likely be alot of dems voting for Hanger in the primary; to get the "less of 2 evils" in office.

One final note on the campaign issues. Hanger just put himself in a pretty good position by voting against both "tax increases" in committee. Emmett can now say he voted against 2 tax increase proposals recently. The fact that NOVA won't get more road money due to his votes will have zero effect in this district, which made the vote all the more brillant.

On the money front Hanger only has $40,840 on hand, which is a drop in the bucket for a Senate race. That should give Sayre the ability to get closer to matching Hanger; especially if he can convince Mr. Curt to open his wallet for him.

Yet again, I give Hanger the early advantage here; and he is probably safer than some of the other incumbents. Even so, Sayre may make this an interesting race.

Transportation Plan is Dead

2007-02-02T12:06:00.000-05:00

Yesterday the Senate Finance committee killed the joint GOP transportation proposal and instead passed Chichester/Potts' plan for a gas tax increase.

The original plan was defeated 11-4 with only Stosch, Stolle, Norment and Wampler voting in favor (GOPs voting against were Chichester, Hawkins, Quayle, Hanger, Watkins and Potts).

The substitute plan carried by Potts passed 9-6 with Stosch, Stolle, Norment, Wampler, Hanger and one more voting against.

This is important on two fronts. First, it will lessen the ammo for declared or possible primary challengers to Stosch, Stolle, Norment and Wampler as well as add to the ammo against the others (most especially Potts, Watkins and Hanger who already have people thinking about challenging).

The second thing about this is that now the possibility of a transportation plan is dead. I have been told that the GOP in NOVA was essentially betting the farm on this plan passing, and that they are probably all screwed since it didn't. The business community has apparently told the GOPs that they wanted to see something happen this year or they were going to be cut off.

With 3 GOP senators being badly threatened and a dem seat that is ripe for takeover, this could spell disaster for the GOP Senate majority. Also, this makes it very tough to win any dem HOD seats in NOVA and probably means Delegates like Callahan, Albo and Frederick are all toast.

Furthermore, there is always a possibility that Kaine could call a transportation special session; thereby lessening the incumbents ability to fundraise while making it look like he wants to do something (which by the way he doesn't).

Kaine is swinging for the fences in 2007; and he just might hit the Grand Slam the way things are playing out.

Primary in the 12th

2007-02-01T16:02:00.000-05:00

The primary in the 12th is the battle between incumbent Senate Majority Leader Walter Stosch and challenger Joe Blackburn. This district runs from western Henrico into Goochland County.

As you probably know, this battle is happening over the tax increase stance that Stosch has taken in both the 2004 budget standoff and now in the transportation funding debate.

This is a very GOP area, but more importantly is fiscally conservative more so than socially. Strangely enough, this is a senate district with one of the largest Allen/No votes (or conversely the least Webb/Yes) in the Commonwealth. This makes the race more likely to favor the challenger b/c the GOP base here is Republican because of their fiscal policy stance. Moreover, there is little chance a dem could beat a Republican here; so there won't be concern that voting for Blackburn could cost the GOP the seat.

Obviously Stosch being majority leader makes him a target by the challenge organizations b/c taking him out could help diminsh the power of the pro-tax wing of the party. Furthermore, it makes it very tough for Stosch to claim "its not my fault" when he has alot of control by being in leadership. He is also a member of the hated "Gang of 5".

On the monetary front, Stosch is crushing Blackburn. Cash on hand as of 12/31/06 looks like this:
Stosch: $375,456
Blackburn: $57,366

Blackburn has some serious work to do here to make up ground if he has any shot of winning the nomination. This is largely due to Stosch still having the backing of most of the business community and also the powerful position he welds in the statehouse.

The X-factor in this race could be Blackburn's consultant, Boyd Marcus. Marcus is the consultant for most all the Richmond GOP power players from the delegate seats to Congressman Cantor and LG Bolling. One theory I have heard is that they are going to push very hard to get all these people on board behind Blackburn. I am very skeptical that this will happen (the more likely scenario is they do not support anyone), but if Marcus can deliver these key endorsements, Blackburn will have a very good shot at winning this one. Also, Marcus' connections should enable him to raise a significant amount of cash for Blackburn, thereby closing the massive gap he currently sets in.

I think Stosch has the early advantage; but if Blackburn can get closer to even in the money race and get traction, then it could get very interesting.

UPDATE: Stosch just voted for the transportation plan in committee. That will probably be helpful for him. He then voted against Chichester's plan (which passed).

Primary in the 22nd

2007-01-31T12:32:00.000-05:00

As most of you probably already knew, Sen. Brandon Bell will be primaried by former Roanoke Mayor Ralph Smith this year.
This district is made up of Botetourt, part of Roanoke and Montgomery Counties, Salem and Radford Cities.
It is a pretty solid GOP district, but a "perfect storm" could allow a democrat to win here.

Like most all the primaries this year, this race is occurring due to Bell's support of Chichester and the tax increase proposals. This is interesting because Bell actually opposed the tax increases in 2004.
One other issue in this race is the bill on an indoor smoking ban, which Bell patroned. From what I have seen, this is actually a bigger issue for most people than his support of the tax increases.

One advantage Bell has here is that his support for social issues is not being challenged, which probably means he will hold that constituency within the party. The marriage amendment passed overwhelmingly in the district, so that probably bodes well for him too.

Smith's advantage is his name ID from being Roanoke mayor; but none of Roanoke City is in the district. In fact, Ralph actually moved to Botetourt to run for Lacey Putney's seat in 2005; but when Putney ran for re-election Smith decided not to get into the race. Now with Putney running again in 2007; Smith has opted to run against Bell.

On the money front, Bell has $65,879 in the bank; while Smith has not reported yet. Smith is independently wealthy; so he will likely do a good bit of self-financing if he needs additional money that he cannot raise. This is also one reason he has gotten alot of support from the VCSS and affliated groups; b/c they won't have to send money his way and hopefully he can give them some. This would tend to favor Smith, as 65k isn't very much for a senate district.

One interesting thing about this race is that Sandy Cupp-Davis, a board member of VCAP, is apparently supporting Bell (she lives in Blacksburg, right outside the district). She has given money to him several times since 2005; including a donation on 12/31/06. That is certainly one disadvantage Smith will face as the only board member near him is not supporting him (and she has a nice house for fundraisers).

It appears alot of the major players are staying out of this race. I have been told that Del. Griffith and Fralin are not taking sides here, and I think Del. Nutter is staying out of it as well. That part probably helps Smith, since it would appear that they don't support Brandon 100%.

As for the activists, I think Bell probably has the early advantage. Certainly this is only so important; as money and ultimately votes matter the most, but the grassroots look to be in Bell's favor right now. This also helps Bell b/c these people are the ones who can usually sway the GOP undecideds on how to vote in the primaries.

Lastly, the fallout from this could be huge. If there is a nasty primary and each side refuses to support the winner of the primary, the GOP could possibly lose the seat. My biggest concern is that with none of the HOD races being competitive, and no major races emerging in the constitutional offices, people could just not vote b/c they don't feel like there is anything to vote for. While this area is solidly GOP, there are still enough dems to keep it interesting if a large block of the GOPs don't show up. There are 2 dems looking at running, so they know there is an opportunity as well.

I think Bell has the advantage right now, but we will have a better idea as the organizations start really shaping up.

Primary Battles Overview

2007-01-30T15:27:00.000-05:00

As we get closer to spring the primary battles will start heating up. Just today I was at the Montgomery County GOP luncheon and the race for the 22nd has already started.

In the next few days I will try and cover each declared primary battle and explain what is going on in each one and what the main issues and factors are. I will also cover some of the Senators who do not have formal challengers but that will probably face one.

I want to preface these by saying that I will take as honest a look at them as possible and bring no biases to them as much as I can.

I will say though, that I firmly believe that all the primary challengers will have a very tough time, and I will go into that in each race. I am not saying I do not support them, but alot of people think this is going to be easier than it is.

As many of you know, VCAP, RSVP and Virginians for a Conservative State Senate will be pouring money into their coffers; while the Senate Leadership Trust will probably be helping out the incumbents. For future info, the money situation for them looks like this as of Jan 1:

Senate Leadership Trust: $565,638 Cash on Hand

RSVP: $25,025
VCSS: $4132 (as of 9/30/06, new report not out yet)
VCAP: $22,355
Total: $51,512 Cash on Hand

As you can see, the incumbents have a monumental cash advantage going into the year. As you will see later, the individual candidates races see a similar pattern.

As of right now I have Stosch, Bell and Potts with declared challengers. I also have Hanger, Chichester, Watkins, Stolle and Norment as possible ones. Let me know if there are any others and will cover them as well.

VT Racist?

2007-01-28T17:43:00.000-05:00

The Roanoke Times thinks so...